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💬 Proven correct
On Kalshi, approval rating by august 26, in 3 days : https://kalshi.com/events/APRPOTUS-22AUG26/markets/APRPOTUS-22AUG26-T40.2 (replace 40.2 in the link with 40.5, 40.8, 41.1, 41.4, 41.7 and 41.8 to
have the remaining ranges)
40 and lower -> (not traded)
40.1-40.3 -> 3%
40.4-40.6 -> 5%
40.7-40.9 -> 13%
41.0-41.2 -> 18%
41.3-41.5 -> 22%
41.6-41.8 -> 22%
>41.8 -> 17%
Thomas Lemoine made S$83!
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/
Too bad not using Reuters showinng 38%.
On Kalshi, approval rating by august 26, in 3 days : https://kalshi.com/events/APRPOTUS-22AUG26/markets/APRPOTUS-22AUG26-T40.2 (replace 40.2 in the link with 40.5, 40.8, 41.1, 41.4, 41.7 and 41.8 to
have the remaining ranges)
40 and lower -> (not traded)
40.1-40.3 -> 3%
40.4-40.6 -> 5%
40.7-40.9 -> 13%
41.0-41.2 -> 18%
41.3-41.5 -> 22%
41.6-41.8 -> 22%
>41.8 -> 17%
I waited for approval before adding this, but essentially my interpretation of this data is that, if this prediction has merit, it seems like the market expects the student debt forgiveness bill (likely to be announced tomorrow, ~80% on another salemcenter question) to be positive for Biden's approval rating (AR) in the short term (as his current AR is 40.7%). So seems like 70% is still to low but :shrug:
too*
What are people's thoughts on student debt cancellation influencing Biden's approval rating?
@HenriLemoine If I had to bet (and I did just sell my no position), I suspect it helps him.
Why use 538 for everything? Why not take an average of 5 pollsters?
@RobertMecca fivethirtyeight's number is, in fact, an average of pollsters
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