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💬 Proven correct
Kalshi's trading at 58%. https://kalshi.com/events/SDEBT/markets/SDEBT-23JAN01
Connor Pitts made S$502!
If possible, it might be a good idea to undo any transactions made on a day a market resolves unexpectedly. If Joe Biden announces he's canceling college debt on August 24, then it becomes a race to free up liquidity and bet on that market before the Salem Center can resolve it.
Knowing this can happen, we're incentivized to keep too many S$ free, and we're also incentivized to refrain from betting on many markets until the last minute. For instance, if Trump announces for President, I know I've got pretty good odds of beating the Salem Center to the market.
Y'all have probably thought this possibility through already, but I wanted to raise the concern, just in case.
@RichardJordan Yeah, sorta agree? With Kalshi, they have market makers, so before a big event, liquidity dries up (as market makers are selling puts and calls, which lose money during heavy volatility) meaning the amount you can make by rushing in with the new information is less. (As there's less people to take the other side of the trade) In this, the market maker is an algorithm, so there's never a liquidy crunch, so this never happens. But on the other hand, you do want this to happen to some degree? Prediction markets are supposed to show aggregation of all available information, and should reflect the real % of the event happening. So you rushing with the new information is in some sense "valuable" and should be rewarded. Though you could make the reasonable argument that having the information a minute sooner isn't the thing that this competition should select for.
*shouldn't
@RichardJordan last mover advantage, lesson learned, hold $S in reserve.
@RichardJordan You can always just dump other positions. I took small losses by closing out some other positions so I could throw in an extra $50 while this was still around 80% even though Biden had tweeted the contours of the plan already.
Note that the corresponding Kalshi market is now trading very low, due to a specific clause in the Kalshi rules:
> The following e-mail was sent out to traders clarifying the rules of the market following announcements by the President on August 24th: We are reaching out to all traders on the SDEBT (student debt) market to issue a clarification regarding the resolution mechanism. The Underlying for the market is Executive Orders issued by the President and bills that have become law. If broad-based student debt forgiveness is enacted through other means that are not the above two (such as a presidential memo, or rule-making by the Department of Education without an executive order or bill), then that would not be encompassed in the Payout Criterion and the market would remain open until its latest possible Expiration Date, in January 2023, and resolve to No. Kalshi always will resolve markets based on its rules. We apologize for the confusion and uncertainty this has caused. In the future, we’re taking steps to prevent any such issues in political markets like this.
This market contains no such clause in the rules and will probably resolve according to more common-sense criteria (presumably whether any debt is actually forgiven or not).
So what does the word enact mean? They have signed the order and are moving forward with it. If the court stops it, would it not be enacted? I mean as long as the order is enforce long enough for some balance to go down the order being rescinded shouldn't matter.
Ben, you need to chill, lol
For me - clearly the Kalshi rules dictate that this won’t count. I have no idea how Salem dictates the resolution of this, but one reasonable way would be to just use the Kalshi criteria. @ConnorPitts
@blatlas I don’t think it would be a reasonable way to resolve this, because the Salem resolution is different in relevant wsyd from the kalshi resolution.
@HenriLemoine agreed, not reasonable at all
@blatas Disagree. My read here is Kalshi didn't "want" this event to happen, but they need to follow the letter of the law and not the intent. I'd say we should go with the intent. Especially as there's no way ex-ante to rule lawyer here on Manifold.
@ConnorPitts This is worded identically to the Kalshi resolution. I’m not saying it “should” be done either way. Kalshi is clear on what should happen, this isn’t, so I don’t think it’s a great buy at 85%.
@blatlas Show me where this is for Manifold? https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/rulebook/contract_terms/SDEBT.pdf
@blatlas This is absolutely not identical to the Kalshi resolution. The Kalshi resolution says that it must be an Executive Order in the Federal Registery. Manifold says nothing about that
@blatlas No, it explicitly is *not* worded identically to the Kalshi resolution. The constraint that makes it false in the Kalshi market isn't included in the Salem market.
@blatlas why on earth would kalshi's fuckup be used to determine the outcome of this market that is properly structured. are you serious, or did you just ape into the wrong side because of what kalshi odds told you and are trying to argue out of it?
If you're confused about Kalshi read the actual rules. There are far more ways for a Presidential administration to do something than via Executive Order
Sadly it takes a couple of days for the Kalahi deposits to clear so I’m stuck as a spectator.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1562462774969581570 Dollars for sale on Kalshi it looks like
@OliverS I know? Why is this market not at 100 yet????
@ConnorPitts Enacts likely means that it would be implemented. It's possible the SC shuts it down.
I guess? But Biden's already canceled 30 billion in other loans? So would be strange.
@ConnorPitts For students who were defrauded. It's a bit different for people who took them out to go to a typical college.
@OliverS Also, thanks for the Kalshi tip. Next time I'll get more capital on the ready, lol.
@MichaelTomac it's not apparent to me who would have standing to sue the Biden administration over this and get it before the Supreme Court. Taxpayer standing theories aren't accepted.
@PPPP Congress might sue as they control power of purse and didn't authorize this, but obv that couldn't happen until after midterms
Any US ppl willing to share login for Kalshi? Strictly view-only ofc (I'm George Vii in manifold discord)
I'm not sure there's a way to see volume, orderbook etc without it :((
@GeorgeVii Volume currently is about 128k
@JosiahNeeley Do you know why the percentages are changing so much with so high a volume? Is it that people are dropping thousands or tens of thousands to change the percentages, or is it that putting little changes it much?
@HenriLemoine I’m not sure. I think the orders are thin in the 60-80% range, so you see big swings within that range.
The spread is currently 84 for Yes 33 for No, so I think whenever someone buys No it drops to 67, but then if you buy yes that moves it back to 84.
Considering the AP source, it's curious that the kalshi market temporarily dropped all the way down to 54%. It's currently at 67%
Can anyone explain how Biden has the Constitutional authority to do this?
@MichaelTomac The Constitution is a living, evolving document
@JosiahNeeley Lmao
@MichaelTomac The Constitution doesn't grant authority, merely outlines forbidden behaviors.
@JaredFrerichs Technically it does grant authority, but aside from rare examples like U.S. v. Morrison it mostly doesn't matter these days.
Kalshi's trading at 85%
Kalshi's trading at 58%. https://kalshi.com/events/SDEBT/markets/SDEBT-23JAN01
@ConnorPitts now at 70%!!
Now at 77%
@ThomasLemoine Which is weird, right? As far as I can tell there’s been basically no new public information in the last two days. A decision being due until August 31 and $10,000 being considered has been the public White House position for a while. Does anyone know why the price is suddenly up so much?
@1941159478 some news articles came out saying he's expected to announce a $10K forgiveness plan tomorrow
@PPPP Yeah exactly, which makes it likely that someone somewhere has insider information and is taking all of Kalshi's money.
Is that a site where you bet with real $$$? I hadn't heard of it prior to this contest.
@PPPP Yes, and in this case it’s already like $200,000 in volume. But it also means insider trading (while fun on Manifold) is an actual crime on Kalshi and hopefully not worth it for a real insider.
But I did read more articles and some have much more certain phrasing on the $10,000 than articles from a couple of days ago. So I guess I got my answer. Thanks!
@1941159478 so, you're saying a government insider might be worried about being prosecuted for insider trading?
@DfromBham Well, ok, I’m not a lawyer. But it sure sounds illegal.
@1941159478 I'm sure it is. But also not surprised if it happens on something like that when it happens pretty openly in the stock market without repurcussions.
This doesn't count? Not broad-based enough? https://www.yahoo.com/video/biden-cancels-7-billion-federal-103023808.html
@JaredFrerichs I would guess not. I'm thinking it will have to be $X thousand forgiveness for anyone making under $X/year to qualify.
How do you define broad based? Would it need to apply to all undergrad debt?
@MichaelTomac I’m also curious. My impression is that the current relief package Biden is reportedly considering (10k canceled for anyone < 150k/year) would satisfy the conditions but I might be wrong
@Quincy I would guess that's right. But I'd like to have a clearish dividing line. I'm assuming that the forgiveness to people who went to scam schools wouldn't count, but I don't know where the line is for Yes to win.
Kalshi is currently trading this at 51%: https://kalshi.com/events/SDEBT/markets/SDEBT-23JAN01
@1941159478 Metacalculus has 44% for student loan forgiveness before 2024, a much longer time horizon so this doesn't seem very mispriced. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/
@Quincy Interesting! I hadn’t seen that market. I’m not really sure what source is better here. Do you or anyone have a sense of who is more reliable? FWIW the resolution criteria seem closer for Kalshi, they’re both for ‘broad-based’ cancellation. Plus, it’s a real money market with a pretty decent volume.
How does this resolve if the President attempts to pass (e.g. issues an executive order) but is blocked?
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