Tournament complete!
Thanks for participating. Read about the results, or continue betting on Manifold.
Biden the Favorite in Summer 2023?
Aug 1
S$63,573 bet
@zubbybadger How on earth did you and Johnny manage to jump on James Kim's bet after only one minute?!!
deleted is betting YES at 85%
@RobertGrosse Well I have a script that polls for market changes once a minute and happened to be at my computer anyway. Still I frankly felt quite good about how quick I was. Until I looked at the actual seconds via the API: My 107 second reaction time got easily outclassed by zubby’s 24 seconds. Anyway, congrats on having come for Mark!
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 85%
@RobertGrosse A couple months ago I saw J10 aka The Goat clearly had some sort of monitor running and I decided I needed to do the same. I was on a golf course when Josiah Neeley decided to rage quit in the Newsom market, which is why I was extra mad!
@zubbybadger I was extra mad because I actually had made a bot to alert me to sudden market movements but wasn't able to get it working. That money really should have been mine.
Alexander Mengden is betting YES at 56%
Biden is older than his predecessors, but incumbency advantage is strong. As far as I can see, the last time that a U.S. president didn't win his primary election for a second term was following the Kennedy assassination, over half a century ago.
PPPP is betting YES at 56%
@AlexanderMengden that's right. And Democrats open up a huge can of worms if they force him out, as Harris is even less popular, but if you then pass her up for some white guy like Newsom or Buttigieg, there'll be a lot of outrage among big segments of the popular. I just don't see anyone other than Biden unless he has an incapacitating health problem.
PPPP is betting YES at 56%
I meant to write "segments of the party".
Robert Mecca is betting NO at 55%
You're really betting on his helath, not his popularity.

Play-money betting

Mana (S$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!