funny how this became essentially impossible since he left the US on 30 March and you can't see that in the price history

This market will settle as YES if the US government begins a process of kicking Jair Bolsonaro out of the country or actually does so by July 31, 2023. For purposes of this market, a YES resolution will require one of the following

*The US beginning extradition proceedings against Bolsonaro

*The US refusing to extend his visa after a request

*The US government in any way either physically removes Bolsonaro from the country or begins the legal process of trying to do so

*The US is credibly reported to have forced him out

Note that it is not required that Bolsonaro actually leave the US by the end of the market for the market to settle as YES.

If Bolsonaro leaves the US on his own volition due to a belief that the US is going to kick him out or refuse to extend his visa, that will be insufficient to resolve this market as YES. To be "forced out" requires that there is credible reporting indicating some communication between Bolsonaro and the US government indicating that he will not be allowed to stay in the country. 

Play-money betting