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💬 Proven correct
Curious that this market has moved so little despite explosion of case numbers this week
Matthew Lilley made S$24!
Yes, seems like this can be resolved
Feels like there should be some procedure by which any trades that occur after terminal condition is reached are cancelled. It's meant to be a prediction competition, not an observation competition.
is almost there - seems like this should be higher https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~CHN
Curious that this market has moved so little despite explosion of case numbers this week
The only way a wave happens is if Xi gives up on zero covid, and there are no signs that a reversal is coming.
There has been a lockdown in Chengdu this last week, cases reaching 3k a day in that City alone. Surprised it hasn't moved this market.
@MathewHalpern Can you provide a link to 3k per day in Chengdu alone?
@MatthewLilley I miss-typed 300 was the report I'd seen. I'll take a look for it.
@MathewHalpern check out the source for this market. It has china at like 1500 cases per day since 2020 except for a brief spike in March. Doubtful this resolves as positive.
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