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💬 Proven correct
China reported 3% GDP growth for 2022, better than the 2.8% forecast in a Reuters poll - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/china-reports-3percent-gdp-growth-for-2022.html
Iraklis Tsatsoulis made S$146!
@ConnorPitts FYI, I put a YES limit down at 7%, so if you want to cash out more at 7%, you can sell with no fees. I assume you still have a large number of YES shares based on the bet history.
Given that a whole bunch of analysts (World Bank, Reuters poll, Bloomberg poll, Chinese estimations) were all converging at 2.7%-2.8% as of earlier today, it is highly puzzling why the price here was at 61%. I can only guess it was due to over-reliance to Kalshi (who woke up also late): https://kalshi.com/events/GDPCN-22/markets/GDPCN-22-A4/?details
@IraklisTsatsoulis Yeah, I at least had a lot of YES and mostly because of deferring to Kalshi. I suspect this is why both markets jumped upwards on New Year’s: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/xi-s-china-gdp-estimate-shows-economy-grew-at-least-4-4-in-2022
Having said that, I think there might just have been some confusion here since Xi’s number were for nominal GDP. I really had to restrain myself this last two weeks from posting that article for a truly awesome pump and dump :)
China reported 3% GDP growth for 2022, better than the 2.8% forecast in a Reuters poll - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/china-reports-3percent-gdp-growth-for-2022.html
How will something like this be taken into account by the WB? Here we seem to be trying to second guess whether the WB will do some kind of adjustments.
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/720458
How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?
I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approximately 35%. Adjusting the data for manipulation leads to a more nuanced view on the recent economic success of autocracies.
So how does this resolve if the figures are so bad China just refuses to release them? lol
Last week, the World Bank downgraded its 2022 China growth outlook to 2.8%, down from their 5% forecast in April and very close to Nomura's 2.7%: https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-insists-theres-nothing-to-worry-about-as-yuan-faces-worst-year-in-3-decades-51664809258 . Kalshi currently at 13%: https://kalshi.com/events/GDPCN-22/markets/GDPCN-22-A4
Kalshi ">3%" is down to yet further to 25%; ">4%" at 15
Kalshi at 16% https://kalshi.com/events/GDPCN-22/markets/GDPCN-22-A4
Chengdu lockdown, wonder if it will last as long as Shanghai's
Shenzhen too ofc
Forecasts continue to be cut. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-28/china-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-economists-cut-2023-forecasts
Kalshi remains much lower at 20% for the same question.
But more notably the ">3%" kashi market has dropped from 48 to 32%.
That being said – I think post-COVID/Ukraine volatility should push us somewhat closer to 50% on all of these economic questions, simply by raising the standard deviation of the distribution. If the maximum likelihood value for this answer is, say, 2.5%, it makes a big difference if the standard deviation is 0.5%, 1%, or 2% for estimating the chance that it'll be over 4%.
Goldman cuts forecast from 4.5 to 4%:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/goldman-sachs-cuts-china-s-growth-forecast-to-4-on-covid-policy
From 4 to 3.3%:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/goldman-cuts-china-s-growth-forecast-to-3-3-after-weak-gdp-data
From 3.3 to 3%:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/goldman-cuts-china-gdp-forecast-on-weak-data-and-energy-issues?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
As Connor Leahy would say, "Just update all the way, brah!"
Kalshi trading the same question at 20% rn: https://kalshi.com/events/GDPCN-22/markets/GDPCN-22-A4
A lot of China economists can't accurately put their predictions out there cos they'd be banned from China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyRdKVIGUoY
Drought in Yantze threatens electricity production, crops, & water. Heatwave so people ramp up aircon. 3 Gorges Dam cannot produce enough electricity, factories in Sichuan are shut down. Could last well into September:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-warns-yangtze-drought-could-last-until-sept-it-races-protect-harvests-2022-08-18/
https://twitter.com/HAOHONG_CFA/status/1560253282546753544
https://yngtz.xyz/
Ray Dalio dumps Alibaba: https://fortune.com/2022/08/16/ray-dalio-liquidated-alibaba-stake-amid-firesale-of-five-chinese-stocks/
@GeorgeVii Also the forecasters note massive additional downside risks. Like their central forecasts don't include another big outbreak of covid, but that's somewhat likely. So there's much greater than 50% chance of being below-forecast, this is normal, forecasts often represent the most likely outcome, not the median outcome.
Also while we don't see all the figures, their central bank does, cutting rates during a global bout of inflation demonstrates they're already in a demand-side recession. CCP has no appetite for bailing our property sector because they want to reorient economy away from property anyway.
Combined with anchoring bias where forecasters can't keep up with how quickly their economy is deteriorating, 'No' still looks good.
This is currently 27% on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/events/GDPCN-22/markets/GDPCN-22-A4
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