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Chinese Military Action against Taiwan?
@ThomasStearns because in a game like this, where rewards don’t pay out linearly with profits, taking added risk, so long as its fair or even close to fair, is beneficial. So the optimal strategy is to bet large amounts of money of the lowest timeline market you can find, take your payout, and repeat, and while knowing if you screw up you’re done for.
@CharlesPaul Someone bought $900 of yes all at once right after this: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/14/politics/us-senate-panel-bill-security-assistance-taiwan/index.html
@LorinElijahBroadbent curious if anyone knows the mechanics of large purchase/sales? So for example, "SD bought S$900 of YES from 17% to 60%". What price did SD's position get executed at, on average? Is his $900 all at 60%? Or is it more like ~38.5%? (the average of 17% and 60%, meaning his order was executed over the range of 17%-60%?)
@CB It's across the whole range, except if someone had a limit order to buy NO shares at a certain price, in which case it bought that many at that price until the limit order was filled. I'm not sure if the average is exactly in the middle, since at the low prices more shares are bought for each dollar.
@MichaelWheatley There is some more information available on the trade with the API. @SD got 2445.4 shares of YES, so in expectation they’d be even at a 900 / 2445.4 = 36.8% probability. Of the S$900 bet, S$563 was traded against the automated market maker. The other S$337 completely matched four different limit orders, by far the biggest one being by @Patrick for S$400 at 41%.
@BTE They rolled back all first-day profits. See Hanania's post with the rule changes. Also, the people running this contest are not idiots. They're using this contest to find a good forecaster. If they see someone has placed as a finalist by landing a lucky trade, munchkining the ruleset, or Goodharting the ranking criteria, they'll just not pick that person when it comes time to handpick a winner from among the best traders.
For sure, @arj definitely looks like an alt, why would you buy to 99% and then sell to 3%? Maybe you can check the ip and see if it matches any other traders. It really demotivates you from trading if people can just create fake accounts and transfer the starting money to their real account.
@RyanAlweiss Hey! So I made a lot of money here. There certainly was no fraud on my part at least, though I can appreciate my name looks like a bot. I hava already been active on the normal Manifold website for a while (https://manifold.markets/1941159478?tab=bets). That’s also how I knew putting up pretty absurd looking limit orders can be good business.
@1941159478 Right, see what I said about "people who have placed limit orders before me (including people just playing honestly)". It's still kind of annoying that even though you did nothing wrong, you now have a huge advantage because of this idiot. The Salem Center should have started the market by placing huge limit orders.
@SalemCenter Seems like the Salem folks fixed this issue by adding significant liquidity to every market. This will keep spreads tight, not even $1000 bet should move the market more than 10 percent either direction. Kinda wish I had gotten here a few hours earlier though because the advantage given to those earliest traders will not be available again, volume is already too high. Making 80 percent on the initial float with current spreads is hard enough, catching the current leaders under such conditions is close to impossible. Gonna try though!!
@SalemCenter I agree it's not cheating to game the market like this and while it feels unfair to people who miss the opportunities presented by big swings caused by large bets, we should expect people who watch for it / catch it to act this way and we would probably do the same thing in their position. Having said that, if the goal of the project is to find the best forecasters, this does not seem like the setup to accomplish it. A few days ago you could see the bets each person had placed on their profile. The two people at the top of the leaderboard had both made a majority of their winnings by placing limit orders at 1 and 99 and selling as the market corrected from massive swings. It might be better for there to be a strong incentive to hold bets to maturity, limit the amount one person can bet at once, implement ban standards and include bets that move markets > x%, or even reject those bets altogether.
@Quincy Yes, I also agree that there is a problem here when the goal is good forecasting instead of having fun market making. Another idea for a solution: Have more markets resolve on a short timeline, like a month or so. That way, good forecasters could compound their earnings. Even with higher liquidity, I think it’s still possible to accumulate earnings by buying low and selling high, just slower. Still hard to compete with by betting on questions that will resolve at the end of the tournament.
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