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@SalemCenter this should resolve
Also note the following Kalshi market on this happening by February 1, currently at 14%: https://kalshi.com/events/CASESURGE-23FEB01/markets/CASESURGE-23FEB01-A300
It’s a lower bound of course, but since it covers most of the time period of this question, I’d put it at maybe about 25%.
Alright, here is my reasoning why I think this is unlikely: Last year, the US peaked at about 800,000 confirmed cases with about 2.5 million tests per day, meaning over a 20% test positivity rate. Currently, only about 500,000 tests per day are performed in the US. And a few days ago, the CDC updated its guidance ( https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-eases-guidance-people-exposed-covid-updates-testing/story?id=88252980 ) to no longer recommend testing asymptomatic people including in schools. People also just generally seem to take a more relaxed approach now. So I expect the number of tests not to go up like the last two winters. Then even if there is another wave, *reported* cases will stay below 300,000.
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