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💬 Proven correct
@Ben This thing is literally passing the Senate today. It will pass the House either this week or the next. What on Earth are you talking about?
guyin1stplace made S$41!
So @SalemCenter, do we get to request new markets? Should we expect regular markets over the rest of this competition? For example, I would recommend launching somewhat regular markets related to Biden's approval rating. I would recommend markets on whether Mayorkas or Biden will be impeached. I would recommend a market on whether a cabinet secretary (defined as the 14 Secretaries and the Attorney General) will resign by end of competition. I would recommend a market right now on whether Kevin McCarthy will be speaker on January 3rd. If there's a place I can throw out suggestions, I'm happy to do so!
@zubbybadger Great ideas. We'll do the Biden approval rating now, maybe those others later.
@SalemCenter Thanks for the quick response! I wasn't really expecting anything lol. I would hope to get the Speaker of the House one especially since that's about to be the biggest story in politics for the next month. I'm really enjoying the competition so far!
@SalemCenter Something that's really important to consider is that the exact date of resolution is extremely important, wagering in a sequence of markets is far more profitable than trying to wager on all of them. As I mentioned a lot my main blunder on this market was betting yes before the Georgia market resolved, since the double parlay would generate a lot more $
Anyone considering selling out: the House is passing this on Tuesday.
@zubbybadger Seems like the only reason to sell out is if you need the liquidity for another market (e.g. GA Senate). It looks like Josiah Neeley already sold a bunch at a loss to bet on the Trump Twitter market.
Above 90% is complete insanity. Maybe 70% would be fair. The good thing about Manifold is the liquidity bots allow you to stop out without losing too much if you're the wrong way around...
@Ben This thing is literally passing the Senate today. It will pass the House either this week or the next. What on Earth are you talking about?
@zubbybadger Yeah, on Polymarket it’s at 99%
@Ben you might be right if it weren't for the fact that selling out is a losing move so nobody on the YES side is ever selling
@ussgordoncaptain Well I still have an ungodly amount of NO shares, almost 15,000 currently. That’s way above any kind of Kelly bet at the current price, so I’d be happy to cash you out at a reasonable haircut, with limit orders to avoid trading fees. I put a big limit order at 85%. We can haggle about the price and amount if you want. Don’t let that sunk-cost fallacy stand in your way :P
@1941159478 You should take some off so that, when this doesn't happen, I'm back in first :)
@SalemCenter Does this violate rule 9?
@ussgordoncaptain I don't know why people think this would be ok.
@SalemCenter @ussgordoncaptain Sorry, I’m a bit lost here and want to get it right. The rule 9 in question is not to “hack” or play unfairly, right? What specifically violates that here? Me trying to coordinate on limit orders or something else?
@1941159478 I guess the idea is that you could be win-trading by establishing this relationship with ussgordoncaptain. But I think that's a dumb objection, because it's zero-sum anyway. The real question is, what benefit do you think you would get from "haggling" - if ussgordoncaptain would be willing to sell down to 85% why wouldn't they just make a limit order there themselves?
@BoltonBailey The value in such negoitiations can be foudn as follows
I have a lot of Yes shares, J10N has a lot of No shares, we both sell out of our positions slowly to free up liquidity to buy the georgia senate market
@BoltonBailey Yeah it was meant more as a convenience thing since there are no sell limit orders so it’d have been annoying to do otherwise. Also haggling sounded fun. But if it’s against the rules, offer’s off the table of course!
I think this is overconfident considering it’s a race against time now. The plan is to pass the bill in the current congressional session while Democrats still control the House. But the session ends on January 3, and the President has ten days (excluding Sundays) to sign after that. So the bill could be signed as late as January 15. And the bill still has to be voted on by the Senate, go to the back to the House to resolve differences about the religious exemption, and then be presented to the President. Plenty of opportunities for delay. Have I missed something?
@1941159478 Nice pump. The Senate will pass the bill first week in December. The House will pass it immediately after that. This won't be close but I respect the effort.
@zubbybadger I agree that’ll probably happen. I really am confused though. The current leaderboard numbers 3, 4, 8, 10 and 12 have pretty much bet their entire fortunes against me at literally 99:1 odds here. (Almost) all their money! For a potential 1% ROI! Why are you all _that_ certain? Surely the US legislative process being gratuitously slow deserves more credence than that.
@1941159478 I’ll explain it to you after the market resolves Yes.
@JosiahNeeley Fair enough! How about this as a historical base rate though: I queried the Congress.gov API to find out the usual time a bill spends between being passed in the Senate to becoming law. It varies wildly, here are some percentiles for the current session, in days:
1st: 6
25th: 13
50th: 23
75th: 82
90th: 189
@1941159478 I wagered it thinking this was a simple resolution hop event not looking hard enough, sadly at this point it's too hard to sell out
@ussgordoncaptain Nope you're right. Don't fall for the pump. The stats cited above are completely useless. This is a major headline bill and the House will take it up as soon as the Senate passes it.
@zubbybadger I could have done nothing and bought the entire thing the day after it passes the house
@ussgordoncaptain I guess. This happens on PredictIt all the time. Something is clearly going to happen, but people want their money out, so it pumps from 1c to like 10c because of the $850 limit. This is an even more ridiculous case because almost no one has the money to just eat 99c shares, so someone buying at 1c can easily just pump and sell to 10c, which is exactly what he did.
@zubbybadger yeah at this point with there being only ~8 people with meaningful stack sizes the competition is gonna have a lot of liquidity locking where buying on news may result in you having to permanently hold the asset since the HFT meta died when all the scrubs lost their cash
@ussgordoncaptain Same here.
Polymarket has a market on the bill passing the Senate this year: https://polymarket.com/market/will-gay-marriage-pass-the-us-senate
It’s currently at 57% and presumably President Biden will sign the bill if it passes.
@1941159478 Polymatket now at 100%
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