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Gay Marriage Bill in 2022?
Resolved
YES
Dec 13
S$68,591 bet

💬 Proven correct

guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace bought S$500 of YES
@Ben This thing is literally passing the Senate today. It will pass the House either this week or the next. What on Earth are you talking about?
guyin1stplace made S$41!
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 100%
So @SalemCenter, do we get to request new markets? Should we expect regular markets over the rest of this competition? For example, I would recommend launching somewhat regular markets related to Biden's approval rating. I would recommend markets on whether Mayorkas or Biden will be impeached. I would recommend a market on whether a cabinet secretary (defined as the 14 Secretaries and the Attorney General) will resign by end of competition. I would recommend a market right now on whether Kevin McCarthy will be speaker on January 3rd. If there's a place I can throw out suggestions, I'm happy to do so!
SalemCenter
@zubbybadger Great ideas. We'll do the Biden approval rating now, maybe those others later.
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 100%
@SalemCenter Thanks for the quick response! I wasn't really expecting anything lol. I would hope to get the Speaker of the House one especially since that's about to be the biggest story in politics for the next month. I'm really enjoying the competition so far!
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 99%
@SalemCenter Something that's really important to consider is that the exact date of resolution is extremely important, wagering in a sequence of markets is far more profitable than trying to wager on all of them. As I mentioned a lot my main blunder on this market was betting yes before the Georgia market resolved, since the double parlay would generate a lot more $
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 94%
Anyone considering selling out: the House is passing this on Tuesday.
RobertGrosse
guyin2ndplace is betting YES at 94%
@zubbybadger Seems like the only reason to sell out is if you need the liquidity for another market (e.g. GA Senate). It looks like Josiah Neeley already sold a bunch at a loss to bet on the Trump Twitter market.
Ben
Ben bought S$50 of NO
Above 90% is complete insanity. Maybe 70% would be fair. The good thing about Manifold is the liquidity bots allow you to stop out without losing too much if you're the wrong way around...
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace bought S$500 of YES
@Ben This thing is literally passing the Senate today. It will pass the House either this week or the next. What on Earth are you talking about?
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley is betting YES at 93%
@zubbybadger Yeah, on Polymarket it’s at 99%
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 93%
@Ben you might be right if it weren't for the fact that selling out is a losing move so nobody on the YES side is ever selling
del
deleted is betting NO at 94%
@ussgordoncaptain Well I still have an ungodly amount of NO shares, almost 15,000 currently. That’s way above any kind of Kelly bet at the current price, so I’d be happy to cash you out at a reasonable haircut, with limit orders to avoid trading fees. I put a big limit order at 85%. We can haggle about the price and amount if you want. Don’t let that sunk-cost fallacy stand in your way :P
Ben
Ben bought S$50 of NO
@1941159478 You should take some off so that, when this doesn't happen, I'm back in first :)
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 94%
@SalemCenter Does this violate rule 9?
SalemCenter
@ussgordoncaptain I don't know why people think this would be ok.
del
deleted is betting NO at 94%
@SalemCenter @ussgordoncaptain Sorry, I’m a bit lost here and want to get it right. The rule 9 in question is not to “hack” or play unfairly, right? What specifically violates that here? Me trying to coordinate on limit orders or something else?
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey is betting YES at 94%
@1941159478 I guess the idea is that you could be win-trading by establishing this relationship with ussgordoncaptain. But I think that's a dumb objection, because it's zero-sum anyway. The real question is, what benefit do you think you would get from "haggling" - if ussgordoncaptain would be willing to sell down to 85% why wouldn't they just make a limit order there themselves?
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 94%
@BoltonBailey The value in such negoitiations can be foudn as follows I have a lot of Yes shares, J10N has a lot of No shares, we both sell out of our positions slowly to free up liquidity to buy the georgia senate market
del
deleted is betting NO at 94%
@BoltonBailey Yeah it was meant more as a convenience thing since there are no sell limit orders so it’d have been annoying to do otherwise. Also haggling sounded fun. But if it’s against the rules, offer’s off the table of course!
del
deleted is betting NO at 97%
I think this is overconfident considering it’s a race against time now. The plan is to pass the bill in the current congressional session while Democrats still control the House. But the session ends on January 3, and the President has ten days (excluding Sundays) to sign after that. So the bill could be signed as late as January 15. And the bill still has to be voted on by the Senate, go to the back to the House to resolve differences about the religious exemption, and then be presented to the President. Plenty of opportunities for delay. Have I missed something?
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 95%
@1941159478 Nice pump. The Senate will pass the bill first week in December. The House will pass it immediately after that. This won't be close but I respect the effort.
del
deleted is betting NO at 95%
@zubbybadger I agree that’ll probably happen. I really am confused though. The current leaderboard numbers 3, 4, 8, 10 and 12 have pretty much bet their entire fortunes against me at literally 99:1 odds here. (Almost) all their money! For a potential 1% ROI! Why are you all _that_ certain? Surely the US legislative process being gratuitously slow deserves more credence than that.
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley is betting YES at 95%
@1941159478 I’ll explain it to you after the market resolves Yes.
del
deleted is betting NO at 92%
@JosiahNeeley Fair enough! How about this as a historical base rate though: I queried the Congress.gov API to find out the usual time a bill spends between being passed in the Senate to becoming law. It varies wildly, here are some percentiles for the current session, in days: 1st: 6 25th: 13 50th: 23 75th: 82 90th: 189
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 94%
@1941159478 I wagered it thinking this was a simple resolution hop event not looking hard enough, sadly at this point it's too hard to sell out
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 93%
@ussgordoncaptain Nope you're right. Don't fall for the pump. The stats cited above are completely useless. This is a major headline bill and the House will take it up as soon as the Senate passes it.
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 89%
@zubbybadger I could have done nothing and bought the entire thing the day after it passes the house
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace bought S$250 of YES
@ussgordoncaptain I guess. This happens on PredictIt all the time. Something is clearly going to happen, but people want their money out, so it pumps from 1c to like 10c because of the $850 limit. This is an even more ridiculous case because almost no one has the money to just eat 99c shares, so someone buying at 1c can easily just pump and sell to 10c, which is exactly what he did.
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 95%
@zubbybadger yeah at this point with there being only ~8 people with meaningful stack sizes the competition is gonna have a lot of liquidity locking where buying on news may result in you having to permanently hold the asset since the HFT meta died when all the scrubs lost their cash
RobertGrosse
guyin2ndplace is betting YES at 97%
@ussgordoncaptain Same here.
del
deleted is betting YES at 44%
Polymarket has a market on the bill passing the Senate this year: https://polymarket.com/market/will-gay-marriage-pass-the-us-senate It’s currently at 57% and presumably President Biden will sign the bill if it passes.
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley is betting YES at 92%
@1941159478 Polymatket now at 100%

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