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💬 Proven correct
Taking my money out of other markets to double down on this one. Let's goooo!
Matthew B made S$270!
I made less money than Ben with his late-ass easy money buys? Now I see the appeal of eating the rich.
+1 could this be resolved?
@SalemCenter, it's not fair to keep funds tied up in this event which already resolved with 99% of the vote counted, when you resolved other events related to the Nov 8 election. This needs to be resolved, please.
According to the page cited in the definition of this event, above, the results were Yes with 2,477,707 votes, at 56.66%. Therefore, the condition has been met to resolve this event.
@SalemCenter the Prop 31 California Flavor Tobacco Ban has resolved YES, and "Will the Republicans win Michigan's 3rd District?" has resolved NO. Yet the the Michigan Abortion Landslide event in the same state is unresolved? Is there anti-republican bias at @SalemCenter? Are you quickly resolving pro-Democrat issues while delaying issues that would be considered Republican wins? This ties up the winnings of the participants on this question so we cannot re-invest that capital into other prediction events likely to happen in the next week, such as whether Trump will announce in 2022.
Why are all the other election events resolved, except for this one?
@KennethGriffith There's also the polling miss and red wave, but yeah! These should resolve already!
@SalemCenter
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-michigan-proposal-3-constitutional-right-to-reproductive-freedom.html
More than 95% of the vote is in. Can we close this out?
With 83% of the vote now counted, at 56.5% yes, the remaining 13% would have to be 87% yes to bring the state up to 60%. Washtenaw County has the highest yes percentage in the state at 76.1, which indicates that the remaining 13% will be that or lower, and this event will resolve as NO in a week or so when Michigan finalizes their numbers.
As of 9 pm EST the initial count is 58% yes, but the rural districts are coming in well above 60% no, and there are about 25 of them that haven't reported yet. The only way > 60% is going to happen is if Detroit reports more votes than the rest of the state combined.
Https://freep.com/results/race/2022-11-08-ballot_initiative-MI-24627/
@KennethGriffith I'm getting a 404 from your link.
This one should work:
https://www.freep.com/elections/results/race/2022-11-08-ballot_initiative-MI-24627/
Taking my money out of other markets to double down on this one. Let's goooo!
@MatthewB The only county reporting Yes at > 60% is seeing that lead shrink. All the other yes counties are well below 60%.
@KennethGriffith Yeah, I would be shocked if this somehow gets above 59%. Despite what Stuart thinks, there were a number of polls in the last couple of weeks and they all put support above 50% but below 60%.
@KennethGriffith "The only way > 60% is going to happen is if Detroit reports more votes than the rest of the state combined."
Well, yes. And that should be expected.
"More than 80 percent of Michigan residents live in a metropolitan statistical area, according to U.S. Census data, but a majority of Michigan's counties area classified as partially or mostly rural. "
https://www.mlive.com/news/erry-2018/12/906ac4ccb82663/comparing-urban-vs-rural-michi.html
And I'm still not sure about the outcome of this. I still think it should be priced around 60, which is why I sold above 60 and bought under 60 within the last hour.
"Majority of Michigan voters, 61.6%, said they would support this proposal."
https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2022/2022/10/05/poll-where-michigan-voters-stand-on-term-limits-abortion-rights-voting-rights-ballot-proposals/
"67% percent of those polled say they would support the amendment to protect abortion rights while 24% said they would vote against it."
https://www.abc12.com/news/state/exclusive-poll-democrats-lead-top-michigan-races-abortion-amendment-popular/article_9949eca8-254b-11ed-964c-bbb030009f9e.html
@StuartDoyle Why are you referencing month old polls rather than the more recent ones?
@MatthewB It's kind of funny that you assume there are more recent ones. Shows that you never looked into the polls on this issue in the first place.
@StuartDoyle Polls have been biased to the left by 4 to 8% for nearly a decade.
@StuartDoyle Imagine being this wrong so consistently. No wonder I've already leapfrogged past you in this competition even though I've only been it for a month.
@KennethGriffith Yes, that's true. I think this market should be priced around 60%.
@MatthewB is a broken clock. That will be obvious in a few days.
@StuartDoyle Right about predictions and right about polls. Better than 0 for 2, Stewart. Dunno how you're gonna win if you can't get those two things right.
I'm curious why the sudden drop from 66 down to the high 30s? Was there a recent poll on this?
@KennethGriffith because of all the people who bet large sums on "no." We play against each other!
@KennethGriffith It's because of me. I had a whole bunch of cash after the Twitter acquisition, and I was looking for markets where the odds seem to diverge a great deal from the facts. I brought it down to 48%, and from there I'm guessing it was momentum investors.
Or people whose attention was drawn by the activity and saw the same thing.
@MatthewB That was the same reason I bet no some time ago. Abortion is very close to a 50/50 issue and has been for decades. The odds of a 60/40 win on a referendum like that in a battleground state are next to impossible.
@KennethGriffith I don't know about next to impossible, since it's all a question of getting out their respective bases to vote, but definitely good odds, especially in a year when it looks like Republicans will be extra motivated to turn out and Democrats will be more likely to stay home.
@MatthewB 60% is what I'm calling a black swan, not 51%.
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