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Michigan Abortion Rights Landslide?
@SalemCenter the Prop 31 California Flavor Tobacco Ban has resolved YES, and "Will the Republicans win Michigan's 3rd District?" has resolved NO. Yet the the Michigan Abortion Landslide event in the same state is unresolved? Is there anti-republican bias at @SalemCenter? Are you quickly resolving pro-Democrat issues while delaying issues that would be considered Republican wins? This ties up the winnings of the participants on this question so we cannot re-invest that capital into other prediction events likely to happen in the next week, such as whether Trump will announce in 2022.
@SalemCenter https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-michigan-proposal-3-constitutional-right-to-reproductive-freedom.html More than 95% of the vote is in. Can we close this out?
With 83% of the vote now counted, at 56.5% yes, the remaining 13% would have to be 87% yes to bring the state up to 60%. Washtenaw County has the highest yes percentage in the state at 76.1, which indicates that the remaining 13% will be that or lower, and this event will resolve as NO in a week or so when Michigan finalizes their numbers.
As of 9 pm EST the initial count is 58% yes, but the rural districts are coming in well above 60% no, and there are about 25 of them that haven't reported yet. The only way > 60% is going to happen is if Detroit reports more votes than the rest of the state combined. Https://freep.com/results/race/2022-11-08-ballot_initiative-MI-24627/
This one should work: https://www.freep.com/elections/results/race/2022-11-08-ballot_initiative-MI-24627/
@KennethGriffith "The only way > 60% is going to happen is if Detroit reports more votes than the rest of the state combined." Well, yes. And that should be expected. "More than 80 percent of Michigan residents live in a metropolitan statistical area, according to U.S. Census data, but a majority of Michigan's counties area classified as partially or mostly rural. " https://www.mlive.com/news/erry-2018/12/906ac4ccb82663/comparing-urban-vs-rural-michi.html
"Majority of Michigan voters, 61.6%, said they would support this proposal." https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2022/2022/10/05/poll-where-michigan-voters-stand-on-term-limits-abortion-rights-voting-rights-ballot-proposals/ "67% percent of those polled say they would support the amendment to protect abortion rights while 24% said they would vote against it." https://www.abc12.com/news/state/exclusive-poll-democrats-lead-top-michigan-races-abortion-amendment-popular/article_9949eca8-254b-11ed-964c-bbb030009f9e.html
@KennethGriffith It's because of me. I had a whole bunch of cash after the Twitter acquisition, and I was looking for markets where the odds seem to diverge a great deal from the facts. I brought it down to 48%, and from there I'm guessing it was momentum investors.
@KennethGriffith I don't know about next to impossible, since it's all a question of getting out their respective bases to vote, but definitely good odds, especially in a year when it looks like Republicans will be extra motivated to turn out and Democrats will be more likely to stay home.
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