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Michigan Abortion Rights Landslide?
Resolved
NO
Nov 12
S$33,865 bet

💬 Proven correct

MatthewB
Matthew B bought S$264 of NO
Taking my money out of other markets to double down on this one. Let's goooo!
Matthew B made S$270!
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 3%
I made less money than Ben with his late-ass easy money buys? Now I see the appeal of eating the rich.
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting NO at 3%
+1 could this be resolved?
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 5%
@SalemCenter, it's not fair to keep funds tied up in this event which already resolved with 99% of the vote counted, when you resolved other events related to the Nov 8 election. This needs to be resolved, please.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 5%
According to the page cited in the definition of this event, above, the results were Yes with 2,477,707 votes, at 56.66%. Therefore, the condition has been met to resolve this event.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 5%
@SalemCenter the Prop 31 California Flavor Tobacco Ban has resolved YES, and "Will the Republicans win Michigan's 3rd District?" has resolved NO. Yet the the Michigan Abortion Landslide event in the same state is unresolved? Is there anti-republican bias at @SalemCenter? Are you quickly resolving pro-Democrat issues while delaying issues that would be considered Republican wins? This ties up the winnings of the participants on this question so we cannot re-invest that capital into other prediction events likely to happen in the next week, such as whether Trump will announce in 2022.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 7%
Why are all the other election events resolved, except for this one?
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 6%
@KennethGriffith There's also the polling miss and red wave, but yeah! These should resolve already!
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 12%
With 83% of the vote now counted, at 56.5% yes, the remaining 13% would have to be 87% yes to bring the state up to 60%. Washtenaw County has the highest yes percentage in the state at 76.1, which indicates that the remaining 13% will be that or lower, and this event will resolve as NO in a week or so when Michigan finalizes their numbers.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 68%
As of 9 pm EST the initial count is 58% yes, but the rural districts are coming in well above 60% no, and there are about 25 of them that haven't reported yet. The only way > 60% is going to happen is if Detroit reports more votes than the rest of the state combined. Https://freep.com/results/race/2022-11-08-ballot_initiative-MI-24627/
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 68%
@KennethGriffith I'm getting a 404 from your link.
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 64%
MatthewB
Matthew B bought S$264 of NO
Taking my money out of other markets to double down on this one. Let's goooo!
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith bought S$153 of NO
@MatthewB The only county reporting Yes at > 60% is seeing that lead shrink. All the other yes counties are well below 60%.
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 48%
@KennethGriffith Yeah, I would be shocked if this somehow gets above 59%. Despite what Stuart thinks, there were a number of polls in the last couple of weeks and they all put support above 50% but below 60%.
StuartDoyle
Stuart Doyle sold S$103 of YES
@KennethGriffith "The only way > 60% is going to happen is if Detroit reports more votes than the rest of the state combined." Well, yes. And that should be expected. "More than 80 percent of Michigan residents live in a metropolitan statistical area, according to U.S. Census data, but a majority of Michigan's counties area classified as partially or mostly rural. " https://www.mlive.com/news/erry-2018/12/906ac4ccb82663/comparing-urban-vs-rural-michi.html
StuartDoyle
Stuart Doyle is betting YES at 48%
And I'm still not sure about the outcome of this. I still think it should be priced around 60, which is why I sold above 60 and bought under 60 within the last hour.
StuartDoyle
Stuart Doyle is betting YES at 43%
"Majority of Michigan voters, 61.6%, said they would support this proposal." https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2022/2022/10/05/poll-where-michigan-voters-stand-on-term-limits-abortion-rights-voting-rights-ballot-proposals/ "67% percent of those polled say they would support the amendment to protect abortion rights while 24% said they would vote against it." https://www.abc12.com/news/state/exclusive-poll-democrats-lead-top-michigan-races-abortion-amendment-popular/article_9949eca8-254b-11ed-964c-bbb030009f9e.html
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 43%
@StuartDoyle Why are you referencing month old polls rather than the more recent ones?
StuartDoyle
Stuart Doyle is betting YES at 43%
@MatthewB It's kind of funny that you assume there are more recent ones. Shows that you never looked into the polls on this issue in the first place.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 43%
@StuartDoyle Polls have been biased to the left by 4 to 8% for nearly a decade.
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 43%
@StuartDoyle Imagine being this wrong so consistently. No wonder I've already leapfrogged past you in this competition even though I've only been it for a month.
StuartDoyle
Stuart Doyle is betting YES at 43%
@KennethGriffith Yes, that's true. I think this market should be priced around 60%.
StuartDoyle
Stuart Doyle is betting YES at 43%
@MatthewB is a broken clock. That will be obvious in a few days.
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 43%
@StuartDoyle Right about predictions and right about polls. Better than 0 for 2, Stewart. Dunno how you're gonna win if you can't get those two things right.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 40%
I'm curious why the sudden drop from 66 down to the high 30s? Was there a recent poll on this?
BodhiStone
Bodhi Stone is betting YES at 53%
@KennethGriffith because of all the people who bet large sums on "no." We play against each other!
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 44%
@KennethGriffith It's because of me. I had a whole bunch of cash after the Twitter acquisition, and I was looking for markets where the odds seem to diverge a great deal from the facts. I brought it down to 48%, and from there I'm guessing it was momentum investors.
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 44%
Or people whose attention was drawn by the activity and saw the same thing.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 44%
@MatthewB That was the same reason I bet no some time ago. Abortion is very close to a 50/50 issue and has been for decades. The odds of a 60/40 win on a referendum like that in a battleground state are next to impossible.
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting NO at 43%
@KennethGriffith I don't know about next to impossible, since it's all a question of getting out their respective bases to vote, but definitely good odds, especially in a year when it looks like Republicans will be extra motivated to turn out and Democrats will be more likely to stay home.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting NO at 43%
@MatthewB 60% is what I'm calling a black swan, not 51%.

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