Nuclear Use in Russia-Ukraine War?
16%
chance
Aug 1, 2023
S$12,759 bet
AAh
Stevie Miller sold S$19 of NO
Apparently some people just died from a Russian missile in Poland https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting YES at 17%
Does a dirty bomb count as a "nuclear weapon"?
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley is betting YES at 15%
Zelensky calling for preemptive strikes on Russian nukes. https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1578076573223292929
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting YES at 12%
There is an edge case that the rules as written do not address. I consider it probable that the United States will detonate a nuclear weapon on the territory of Ukraine, and blame it on Russia. This would not be a "demonstrative detonation", but it would be on the territory of its "ally" Ukraine.
KennethGriffith
Kenneth Griffith is betting YES at 12%
Ok, I apparently misread how you are using the word "demonstrative". I interpreted it to mean a nuclear test. The rules say a "demonstrative detonation" must occur in order to settle as yes. I don't like the way this one is written, because there are a few edge cases that should settle as YES but the current rules would settle as NO. Here are the edge cases: 1. USA or Russia fires a nuclear armed missile at a ship of the other in international waters, as a result of escalation of the Ukraine conflict. 2. The USA detonates a nuclear weapon on the territory of Ukraine or another purported ally in order to blame it on Russia, ie. false flag. Because Ukraine is a USA ally, this would result in a NO under current rules.

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