Tournament complete!
Thanks for participating. Read about the results, or continue betting on Manifold.
BTW, I'm very impressed that Connor Pitts apparently managed to transfer his money from one market to the other just in the brief time between when whoever it was at Salem resolved the two markets. Well played.
Shouldn't this have been cut off when voting ended? lots of late bets as results trickled in
@RustonEastman I was also interested in this question and did some math with data from the API to calculate how much money people made in the tournament so far with trades done after an election concluded or some other event just happened. For better or worse, it’s a lot. Here’s those profits for the users on the current leaderboard, as a fraction of their current portfolio size:
zubbybadger: 16.02%
Johnny Ten-Numbers: 25.15%
Mark: 40.85%
Connor Pitts: 45.55%
Robert Grosse: 29.58%
Ben: 29.48%
David Hassett: 62.72%
ussgordoncaptain: 63.75%
Krum-Dawg Millionaire: 27.53%
Zach Viglianco: 8.71%
Josiah Neeley: 68.08%
Asher Gabara: 34.09%
Dylan Levi King: 39.98%
Noah Lafountain: 45.56%
Henri Lemoine: -5.31%
Jack G-W: 29.26%
Spencer Henderson: 53.73%
Sam Dittmer: 31.68%
PPPP: 25.65%
Alvaro de Menard: 3.49%
@1941159478 Very cool. Mind sharing the data?
@1941159478 Thank you for the positive affirmation :)
@1941159478 I'm fascinated by this. Thank you and great job! Can you clear a couple things up? At what point do my Vallas trades count for my return percentage? I bought No literally on the first the returns. Also, for something like the Trump indictment, I'm assuming the only profits counted there are shares bought literally after the news was reported?
@zubbybadger Thank you both! I guess we’re not supposed to tell how much profit we each made because the tournament is still going, so I probably shouldn’t just put out the whole code either. The original data itself is from the API and the Bets panel on each market. The profits above are the difference in portfolio value to markets counterfactually having closed earlier. When exactly is a judgment call of course, but I tried closing when the polls did (the midterms really were the big screwy event in my view). Here’s the specific timestamps used above: https://pastebin.com/2Aynkz6u
I had actually missed the market about Trumps indictment. Rerunning it with that closing March 30, 2023 21:00 GMT gives the following new top spots (because I bought M$400 of NO with limit orders after it had already happened):
zubbybadger: 21.58%
Johnny Ten-Numbers: 23.48%
@1941159478 sounds like I need to start following the news more closely as I’m below the average at getting post-event gains!
@1941159478 I think election markets should be kept open after the polls close as long as the votes are still being counted. Many markets continued to fluctuate after the polls closed because the results were still uncertain, and the fact that there is a negative percentage shows that people can still be wrong with "post-event" bets. Also, it looks like your script closed the Georgia Senate market when the polls for the first-round election closed (as opposed to the runoff).
@Mark Case in point: Sam briefly bet on Vallas on the way down last night.
One other point is that even when the outcome is not in doubt, there's still risk around resolution time. The reason I didn't jump on the Trump Indictment bandwagon was because I expected it to not resolve until the charges were unsealed and if it had taken a while to resolve then people would have lost money on opportunity costs (still kicking myself for missing that one).
Incidentally, that's a lesson I learned the hard way early on when I FOMO'd into the Gay Marriage market at 99% in early November and then had to sit there helplessly with all my money tied up for a month.
@RobertGrosse Same one the Trump one, lol. Why I got in so (relatively) late. We can kick ourselves together. Also *shudders* never speak of that market again. i did the exact same thing on the gay marriage market. That month sucked.
Somewhat the same on...*
@Mark Election markets should absolutely be open after the polls close. However, if there was a Chicago market on PredictIt, that would have been in the high 90s for Vallas No, while it was at like 60 the same time here. Additionally, the people with ~50% of their gains occurring for events that have already closed would get maaaaaaybe 5% (probably closer to 1%) of that for a corresponding market on PredictIt. Nobody is doing anything wrong of course, but I'm just pointing out why I think the analysis is fair
Now, for the midterms, ideally you would have a perfect narrative for each market. Arizona and Nevada weren't clear at all for a couple of days. For Georgia, you would freeze all bets for like 24 hours, and then calculate bets that occurred until the runoff. Hopefully for whatever paper comes out of this competition, they consult with all of us to get a full accounting of what happened.
@1941159478 I made my bet on March 6th.
FWIW, and I realize my own bias, but I think that predicting results after looking at actual returns is more "consistent" than beforehand.
Predicting in advance is just looking at polls, fundamentals, and factoring uncertainty. I had no money in this market because I thought the price accurately factored that in. Predicting based off actual returns requires a lot more info, and I think I was faster and more confident in the result than any major outlets.
@NoahLafountain yeah in a real money market with a lot of people, you were clearly fast enough to make a good profit. Great job! I also agree that just looking at pre election stuff is less complex than analyzing initial returns. However, your (and my) gains would have been much less in a market with more active participants, and I think it’s totally reasonable to do an analysis that somewhat accounts for scenarios like this.
this is OVER OVER
Yesssssir
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