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Peter Obi President of Nigeria?

Resolved

Salem Center

Mar 2

S$13,524 bet

💬 Proven correct

deleted bought S$2,000 of NO

a year ago

@SalemCenter Tinubu was just declared victor by INEC: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/28/nigeria-election-results-bola-tinubu/

deleted made S$159!

Josiah Neeley is betting NO at 4%

a year ago

While we’re at it, Kari Lake is still appealing her loss in Arizona last year. So maybe that one was prematurely resolved as well.

Aaron Kreider is betting NO at 4%

a year ago

@JosiahNeeley No. That is not a real appeal -- it has a < 0.1% chance of success. By contrast, the Supreme Court has at least a 1% chance of overturning the result (Polymarket has traded at 1-2 cents, it'd be higher if I wasn't worried about premature resolution risk). And on Manifold the odds are at 10%.

Aaron Kreider is betting NO at 4%

a year ago

https://manifold.markets/AaronKreider/will-the-nigerian-courts-overturn-t

guyin1stplace

a year ago

Just wanted to say I agree with below that this was a premature resolution @SalemCenter .

Aaron Kreider is betting NO at 4%

a year ago

This is going to be appealed in the courts. As a No holder, I believe that there is a strong chance that Peter Obi won the election. There is a lesser, but still significant chance that the courts will call for a new round of elections or declare Obi the winner. Premature resolution.

Aaron Kreider is betting NO at 4%

a year ago

Or more accurately, despite being a No holder... Based on all my research and analysis there was systemic fraud, and it is possible that the evidence will be so overwhelming (ex. pictures of fraudulent polling booth totals compared to the real ones) that the courts will overturn the election result. Also, there is at least one case of the courts directly appointing a "loser" as the winner of an election (I think a state governor race).