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Peter Obi President of Nigeria?
💬 Proven correct
deleted made S$159!
@JosiahNeeley No. That is not a real appeal -- it has a < 0.1% chance of success. By contrast, the Supreme Court has at least a 1% chance of overturning the result (Polymarket has traded at 1-2 cents, it'd be higher if I wasn't worried about premature resolution risk). And on Manifold the odds are at 10%.
This is going to be appealed in the courts. As a No holder, I believe that there is a strong chance that Peter Obi won the election. There is a lesser, but still significant chance that the courts will call for a new round of elections or declare Obi the winner. Premature resolution.
Or more accurately, despite being a No holder... Based on all my research and analysis there was systemic fraud, and it is possible that the evidence will be so overwhelming (ex. pictures of fraudulent polling booth totals compared to the real ones) that the courts will overturn the election result. Also, there is at least one case of the courts directly appointing a "loser" as the winner of an election (I think a state governor race).
This Economist article makes it seem likely that this will go to run-off https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/02/02/nigerias-presidential-race-goes-down-to-the-wire
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