This is one of the most poorly calibrated markets currently on CSPI - after the recent insurgency in the Khyber, I can't think of a single state for whom recognising the Taliban makes sense. You could make a dark hose case for China, but this would be really out of character given their generally cautious diplomatic approach to countries not named Taiwan. It would also needlessly antagonise Pakistan for little gain.

This market will resolve as YES if any country in the world recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan by the end of July 2023. Recognition must be de jure, not simply de facto. 

In the case of uncertainty, the resolution of this market will depend on how The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and The Washington Post characterize any relevant relationships between the Taliban and other states. 

💬 Proven correct

Play-money betting