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This market will settle as YES if Republicans win at least 235 seats in the 2022 elections for the House of Representatives.
The market will close as soon as major media outlets have called enough races to make a determination. In the case of uncertainty, the market may remain open until the first week of January, when the new Congress is sworn in.
🏅 Top bettors
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ussgordoncaptain | S$1,458 |
| 2 |  Andy Martin | S$589 |
| 3 |  Nate Stover | S$348 |
| 4 |  Colin McRoberts | S$347 |
| 5 |  Jack | S$328 |
💬 Proven correct
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
ussgordoncaptain made S$130!
💸 Smartest money
ussgordoncaptain made S$523!
Fox news resolves NO https://www.foxnews.com/elections
@salemcenter NYT now also has 201 Dem House seats. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html
ABC resolves NO https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map
MSNBC resolves NO https://www.msnbc.com/2022-midterm-elections/results/live-blog/midterm-elections-live-updates-2022-results-rcna52821
NYT Resolves undecided
CNN resolve undecided
Fox resolves undecided
Do you wish to resolve based on ABC?
538/ABC has called 201 seats in favor of democrats, so I think this can be closed soon if not already
@AndyMartin I’m only seeing 188 called for Democrats https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/house-senate-results-so-far/
@JosiahNeeley that's from 4:40am yesterday
see live coverage at https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map
(this is the same link used in the sidebar of https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/ )
what were the data sources people were using to bid this above 50%?
@AndyMartin I think it was a misreading of the question TBH
When liquidity from the 538 market got in it was time to put all 1.3k into this market but idk why it was at 70% instead of the more reasonable 20-40%. 235 is just a really big number
What’s with all the sudden bearishness?
@PPPP A few of us bought no shares nearly simultaneously when the odds hit nearly 70% this morning, presumably because we all felt that was excessive. Caused a bigger drop than I was expecting, for sure.
@PPPP Pretty sure this is to blame, in part.
https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1589986953843576833
@LorinElijahBroadbent @colinmcroberts that makes sense. I was wondering if I’d missed some big poll swings favoring the Ds.
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
@JJGG ^ currently has the odds of a red wave at 20%
@AndyMartin Looks like it's 23% today, but it's been in the low 20s for a while.
@JJGG still at 22
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