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Red Wave in November?
Resolved
NO
Nov 12
S$36,119 bet

💬 Proven correct

ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain bought S$100 of NO
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
ussgordoncaptain made S$130!
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain bought S$1,134 of NO
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 7%
ABC resolves NO https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map MSNBC resolves NO https://www.msnbc.com/2022-midterm-elections/results/live-blog/midterm-elections-live-updates-2022-results-rcna52821 NYT Resolves undecided CNN resolve undecided Fox resolves undecided Do you wish to resolve based on ABC?
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting NO at 8%
538/ABC has called 201 seats in favor of democrats, so I think this can be closed soon if not already
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley bought S$300 of NO
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting NO at 7%
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting NO at 7%
(this is the same link used in the sidebar of https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/ )
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting NO at 21%
what were the data sources people were using to bid this above 50%?
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 21%
@AndyMartin I think it was a misreading of the question TBH When liquidity from the 538 market got in it was time to put all 1.3k into this market but idk why it was at 70% instead of the more reasonable 20-40%. 235 is just a really big number
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 41%
What’s with all the sudden bearishness?
ColinMcRoberts
Colin McRoberts is betting NO at 42%
@PPPP A few of us bought no shares nearly simultaneously when the odds hit nearly 70% this morning, presumably because we all felt that was excessive. Caused a bigger drop than I was expecting, for sure.
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 59%
@LorinElijahBroadbent @colinmcroberts that makes sense. I was wondering if I’d missed some big poll swings favoring the Ds.
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain bought S$100 of NO
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
AndyMartin
Andy Martin bought S$109 of NO
@JJGG ^ currently has the odds of a red wave at 20%
JJGG
JG is betting NO at 38%
@AndyMartin Looks like it's 23% today, but it's been in the low 20s for a while.
AndyMartin
Andy Martin bought S$37 of NO
@JJGG still at 22

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