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Red Wave in November?
Resolved
NO
Nov 12
S$36,119 bet
Sep 1Oct 1Nov 10%25%50%75%100%

This market will settle as YES if Republicans win at least 235 seats in the 2022 elections for the House of Representatives.


The market will close as soon as major media outlets have called enough races to make a determination. In the case of uncertainty, the market may remain open until the first week of January, when the new Congress is sworn in.


🏅 Top bettors

#NameTotal profit
1
ussgordoncaptain
S$1,458
2
Andy Martin
S$589
3
Nate Stover
S$348
4
Colin McRoberts
S$347
5
Jack
S$328

💬 Proven correct

ussgordoncaptain
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
ussgordoncaptain made S$130!

💸 Smartest money

ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain bought S$300 of NO from 70% to 61%2 years ago
ussgordoncaptain made S$523!
ussgordoncaptain
ABC resolves NO https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map MSNBC resolves NO https://www.msnbc.com/2022-midterm-elections/results/live-blog/midterm-elections-live-updates-2022-results-rcna52821 NYT Resolves undecided CNN resolve undecided Fox resolves undecided Do you wish to resolve based on ABC?
AndyMartin
538/ABC has called 201 seats in favor of democrats, so I think this can be closed soon if not already
AndyMartin
(this is the same link used in the sidebar of https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/ )
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting NO at 21%
what were the data sources people were using to bid this above 50%?
ussgordoncaptain
@AndyMartin I think it was a misreading of the question TBH When liquidity from the 538 market got in it was time to put all 1.3k into this market but idk why it was at 70% instead of the more reasonable 20-40%. 235 is just a really big number
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 41%
What’s with all the sudden bearishness?
ColinMcRoberts
@PPPP A few of us bought no shares nearly simultaneously when the odds hit nearly 70% this morning, presumably because we all felt that was excessive. Caused a bigger drop than I was expecting, for sure.
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 59%
@LorinElijahBroadbent @colinmcroberts that makes sense. I was wondering if I’d missed some big poll swings favoring the Ds.
ussgordoncaptain
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
AndyMartin
@JJGG ^ currently has the odds of a red wave at 20%
JJGG
JG is betting NO at 38%
@AndyMartin Looks like it's 23% today, but it's been in the low 20s for a while.
AndyMartin
@JJGG still at 22

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