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💬 Proven correct
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
ussgordoncaptain made S$130!
Fox news resolves NO https://www.foxnews.com/elections
@salemcenter NYT now also has 201 Dem House seats. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html
ABC resolves NO https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map
MSNBC resolves NO https://www.msnbc.com/2022-midterm-elections/results/live-blog/midterm-elections-live-updates-2022-results-rcna52821
NYT Resolves undecided
CNN resolve undecided
Fox resolves undecided
Do you wish to resolve based on ABC?
538/ABC has called 201 seats in favor of democrats, so I think this can be closed soon if not already
@AndyMartin I’m only seeing 188 called for Democrats https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/house-senate-results-so-far/
@JosiahNeeley that's from 4:40am yesterday
see live coverage at https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map
(this is the same link used in the sidebar of https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/ )
what were the data sources people were using to bid this above 50%?
@AndyMartin I think it was a misreading of the question TBH
When liquidity from the 538 market got in it was time to put all 1.3k into this market but idk why it was at 70% instead of the more reasonable 20-40%. 235 is just a really big number
What’s with all the sudden bearishness?
@PPPP A few of us bought no shares nearly simultaneously when the odds hit nearly 70% this morning, presumably because we all felt that was excessive. Caused a bigger drop than I was expecting, for sure.
@PPPP Pretty sure this is to blame, in part.
https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1589986953843576833
@LorinElijahBroadbent @colinmcroberts that makes sense. I was wondering if I’d missed some big poll swings favoring the Ds.
@PPPP The fivethirtyEight forecast market closed which freed up a ton of liquidity
@JJGG ^ currently has the odds of a red wave at 20%
@AndyMartin Looks like it's 23% today, but it's been in the low 20s for a while.
@JJGG still at 22
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