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💬 Proven correct
If the race is currently 50-50, why is this at 81%?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-arizona-governor.html
Emil O. W. Kirkegaard made S$38!
@salemcenter MSNBC has called the race for Hobbs https://twitter.com/msnbc/status/1592333541001822208?s
If the race is currently 50-50, why is this at 81%?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-arizona-governor.html
@EmilOWKirkegaard Check PredictIt
@JosiahNeeley Yes, they are completely opposite, at 85% chance for Dem victory. This one is 81% chance for Rep victory. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
Nvm, that was the Senate one. Governor one is here, at 73% Rep, so I guess kinda agrees with this market. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election
There’s a known consensus to anyone here that in-person voting -> skew R, and mail-in early voter -> skew D.
But what to make of ~175k+ same day dropped off mail ballots? Either very prepared people (who don’t want to wait in lines) or very lazy people (who waited till the last minute to turn it in).
My bet (with a 30-70 upside) is it’s the later. My fellow Procrastinators are going to bail me out in this market.
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