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Republican Governor in Arizona?
Resolved
NO
Nov 15
S$51,483 bet

💬 Proven correct

Emil O. W. Kirkegaard made S$38!
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley bought S$121 of NO
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley is betting YES at 81%
@EmilOWKirkegaard Check PredictIt
EmilOWKirkegaard
Emil O. W. Kirkegaard is betting NO at 81%
@JosiahNeeley Yes, they are completely opposite, at 85% chance for Dem victory. This one is 81% chance for Rep victory. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
EmilOWKirkegaard
Emil O. W. Kirkegaard is betting NO at 81%
Nvm, that was the Senate one. Governor one is here, at 73% Rep, so I guess kinda agrees with this market. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election
NathanKrummen
There’s a known consensus to anyone here that in-person voting -> skew R, and mail-in early voter -> skew D. But what to make of ~175k+ same day dropped off mail ballots? Either very prepared people (who don’t want to wait in lines) or very lazy people (who waited till the last minute to turn it in). My bet (with a 30-70 upside) is it’s the later. My fellow Procrastinators are going to bail me out in this market.

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