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Trump the Favorite in Summer 2023?
Resolved
YES
Aug 1
S$34,285 bet

💬 Proven correct

Stevie Miller made S$145!
AaronKreider
Biased odds. Trump's real odds are closer to 36%.
ForrestTaylor
Forrest Taylor is betting YES at 58%
@AaronKreider So why aren't you buying NO?
AaronKreider
@ForrestTaylor I'm saying the election betting odds are wrong - so it's a bit silly to make a secondary market on them. And I'm buying no on real money markets.
AaronKreider
Notably Polymarket is heavily biased towards Trump when compared to PredictIt, and arguably Predictit already overvalues him.
AAh
Stevie Miller is betting YES at 55%
Look at the base rate!
AAh
Stevie Miller is betting YES at 55%
Trump mean reverts nicely
AAh
Stevie Miller is betting YES at 43%
IraklisTsatsoulis
Iraklis Tsatsoulis is betting NO at 31%
Trump announcing collectible cards with himself as... superhero! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/15/trump-mocked-superhero-digital-card-collection
ForrestTaylor
Forrest Taylor bought S$35 of YES
@IraklisTsatsoulis And he sold them all. Each cost $99 to mint. Do you think there exists, anywhere in America, someone who would have plunked down $100k to buy a thousand of these things from Ron DeSantis? Do you think Tim Scott or Glenn Youngkin could sell $4.5 million worth of digital cartoons depicting themselves shooting lasers out of their eyes, or wearing a yarmulke at the wailing wall, or showing off pretend 8-pack abs and a codpiece—in a couple hours?
IraklisTsatsoulis
Iraklis Tsatsoulis is betting NO at 30%
@ForrestTaylor he did indeed; and no, I could not imagine anyone else even trying this. Let's see how it plays out (I was ready to post again with the result, it would be arguably better if you had attempted to predict the sold out instead of coming to argue after the fact)
ForrestTaylor
Forrest Taylor is betting YES at 30%
@IraklisTsatsoulis That's fair, i just keep forgetting about this website
IraklisTsatsoulis
Iraklis Tsatsoulis is betting NO at 30%
Trump's conservative base deserting him for DeSantis - BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63967234
ForrestTaylor
Forrest Taylor is betting YES at 30%
DeSantis has a bump now but I don't think bumps always last that long, and the summer before the primaries is often a weird time
CB
CB bought S$4 of NO
my assumptions: -if indicted, he will almost certainly not be the favorite to win (no one will want to touch him, and he will be busy with his defense) -i would say ~50/50 he is favorite to win if he is not indicted. seems to me that desantis is picking up momentum and i think the republican establishment is ready for someone new.

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