Tournament complete!
Thanks for participating. Read about the results, or continue betting on Manifold.
đź’¬ Proven correct
This doesn't seem very unlikely
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html
Stevie Miller made S$145!
Biased odds. Trump's real odds are closer to 36%.
@AaronKreider So why aren't you buying NO?
@ForrestTaylor I'm saying the election betting odds are wrong - so it's a bit silly to make a secondary market on them. And I'm buying no on real money markets.
Notably Polymarket is heavily biased towards Trump when compared to PredictIt, and arguably Predictit already overvalues him.
Look at the base rate!
Trump mean reverts nicely
Trump current favorite! https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html
This doesn't seem very unlikely
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html
Trump announcing collectible cards with himself as... superhero! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/15/trump-mocked-superhero-digital-card-collection
@IraklisTsatsoulis And he sold them all. Each cost $99 to mint. Do you think there exists, anywhere in America, someone who would have plunked down $100k to buy a thousand of these things from Ron DeSantis? Do you think Tim Scott or Glenn Youngkin could sell $4.5 million worth of digital cartoons depicting themselves shooting lasers out of their eyes, or wearing a yarmulke at the wailing wall, or showing off pretend 8-pack abs and a codpiece—in a couple hours?
@ForrestTaylor he did indeed; and no, I could not imagine anyone else even trying this. Let's see how it plays out (I was ready to post again with the result, it would be arguably better if you had attempted to predict the sold out instead of coming to argue after the fact)
@IraklisTsatsoulis That's fair, i just keep forgetting about this website
Trump's conservative base deserting him for DeSantis - BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63967234
DeSantis has a bump now but I don't think bumps always last that long, and the summer before the primaries is often a weird time
my assumptions:
-if indicted, he will almost certainly not be the favorite to win (no one will want to touch him, and he will be busy with his defense)
-i would say ~50/50 he is favorite to win if he is not indicted. seems to me that desantis is picking up momentum and i think the republican establishment is ready for someone new.
Play-money betting
Mana (S$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!