Tournament complete!
Thanks for participating. Read about the results, or continue betting on Manifold.
💬 Proven correct
"The deal would suspend the debt limit through January of 2025, while capping spending in the 2024 and 2025 budgets, claw back unused COVID funds, speed up the permitting process for some energy projects and includes some extra work requirements for food aid programs for poor Americans."
Malte Schrödl made S$2,417!
BTW, I finally finished my second blog post about the contest. Warning, it is *very* long!
https://blog.polybdenum.com/2023/08/28/how-i-came-second-out-of-999-in-the-salem-center-prediction-market-tournament-without-knowing-anything-about-prediction-markets-and-what-i-learned-along-the-way-part-2.html
Just for one, I decided to see how changing the start date for the 5k prize would have affected the results. Here are the top 5 % increases using every day in February at 6am as the starting point:
Feb 1
1) Robert Grosse - 7.647x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.786x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.446x, 4) DfromBham - 4.380x, 5) PPPP - 3.271x
Feb 2
1) Robert Grosse - 7.603x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.629x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.472x, 4) DfromBham - 4.470x, 5) PPPP - 3.483x
Feb 3
1) Robert Grosse - 7.633x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.629x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.472x, 4) DfromBham - 4.459x, 5) PPPP - 3.479x
Feb 4
1) Robert Grosse - 6.965x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.616x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.484x, 4) DfromBham - 4.445x, 5) PPPP - 3.475x
Feb 5
1) Robert Grosse - 6.288x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.611x, 3) DfromBham - 4.536x, 4) Sid Sid - 4.493x, 5) PPPP - 3.505x
Feb 6
1) Robert Grosse - 6.471x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.610x, 3) DfromBham - 4.499x, 4) Sid Sid - 4.493x, 5) PPPP - 3.493x
Feb 7
1) Robert Grosse - 6.390x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.610x, 3) DfromBham - 4.499x, 4) Sid Sid - 4.493x, 5) PPPP - 3.493x
Feb 8
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.610x, 2) Robert Grosse - 5.471x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.515x, 4) DfromBham - 4.499x, 5) PPPP - 3.493x
Feb 9
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.660x, 2) Robert Grosse - 5.114x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.596x, 4) DfromBham - 4.511x, 5) PPPP - 3.476x
Feb 10
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.660x, 2) Robert Grosse - 5.114x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.577x, 4) DfromBham - 4.501x, 5) PPPP - 3.472x
Feb 11
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.808x, 2) Sid Sid - 4.648x, 3) DfromBham - 4.618x, 4) PPPP - 3.653x, 5) Robert Grosse - 3.434x
Feb 12
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.808x, 2) DfromBham - 4.680x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.657x, 4) Robert Grosse - 4.009x, 5) PPPP - 3.673x
Feb 13
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.808x, 2) DfromBham - 4.655x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.640x, 4) Robert Grosse - 4.507x, 5) PPPP - 3.665x
Feb 14
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.808x, 2) DfromBham - 4.645x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.632x, 4) PPPP - 4.133x, 5) Robert Grosse - 3.954x
Feb 15
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.812x, 2) Sid Sid - 4.681x, 3) DfromBham - 4.537x, 4) PPPP - 3.770x, 5) Robert Grosse - 3.633x
Feb 16
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.760x, 2) Sid Sid - 4.617x, 3) DfromBham - 4.556x, 4) PPPP - 3.828x, 5) Robert Grosse - 3.251x
Feb 17
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.850x, 2) Sid Sid - 4.776x, 3) DfromBham - 4.508x, 4) PPPP - 3.691x, 5) Robert Grosse - 3.039x
Feb 18
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.896x, 2) Robert Grosse - 4.865x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.810x, 4) DfromBham - 4.520x, 5) PPPP - 3.667x
Feb 19
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.757x, 2) Sid Sid - 4.736x, 3) Robert Grosse - 4.577x, 4) DfromBham - 4.514x, 5) PPPP - 3.673x
Feb 20
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.731x, 2) Sid Sid - 4.711x, 3) DfromBham - 4.508x, 4) Robert Grosse - 4.351x, 5) PPPP - 3.649x
Feb 21
1) Robert Grosse - 6.860x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.568x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.667x, 4) DfromBham - 4.538x, 5) PPPP - 3.649x
Feb 22
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.739x, 2) Robert Grosse - 5.709x, 3) Sid Sid - 5.564x, 4) DfromBham - 3.942x, 5) PPPP - 2.731x
Feb 23
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.732x, 2) Sid Sid - 5.614x, 3) Robert Grosse - 5.257x, 4) DfromBham - 4.105x, 5) PPPP - 3.010x
Feb 24
1) Sid Sid - 5.870x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.732x, 3) Robert Grosse - 5.257x, 4) DfromBham - 4.103x, 5) PPPP - 3.010x
Feb 25
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.881x, 2) Sid Sid - 5.563x, 3) DfromBham - 4.259x, 4) Robert Grosse - 4.247x, 5) PPPP - 3.241x
Feb 26
1) Sid Sid - 6.550x, 2) Malte Schrodl - 5.856x, 3) DfromBham - 4.275x, 4) Robert Grosse - 3.591x, 5) PPPP - 3.241x
Feb 27
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.858x, 2) DfromBham - 4.203x, 3) Sid Sid - 4.034x, 4) Robert Grosse - 3.429x, 5) PPPP - 3.095x
Feb 28
1) Malte Schrodl - 5.855x, 2) DfromBham - 4.221x, 3) Sid Sid - 3.538x, 4) PPPP - 3.183x, 5) Robert Grosse - 2.729x
Sorry, I meant "just for fun".
Lol Malte won 5K in this market!
gg everyone! Definitely was outclassed by some of the guys at the top, but still pretty happy with 18. Would be very curious to see the distribution of funds at the end, because it felt like I hung around 15-20 most of the time and couldn't really break through, but to be fair I was playing it pretty safe. @Robert could you post this if you have it?
Ended with $3,248 and 143 bets. Didn't consciously try and game it, so definitely realized some of the things Robert wrote below a little too late, also got pretty lucky on the China question and being a first mover on the election questions (thanks twitter). Who knows maybe I'll see some of you at the conference!
@OliverS Here is the final top 50. For users that had an adjustment applied due to the first day windfall, the raw score is first and then the adjusted score in parenthesis. There is some uncertainty in Johnny's adjustment, so it is off by +-2.5, or possibly slightly higher.
Low ranked players who never made it onto the leaderboard are shown as raw userids because the user api was blocked, so I had no way to query people's usernames directly. Instead, I *manually* coded in the names for players when I saw them on the leaderboard, but people who were never in the top 20 are shown as raw ids.
1) zubbybadger 23182.0525265
2) Robert Grosse 17820.5689235
3) Johnny Ten-Numbers 16622.399872 (15772.1474041)
4) David Hassett 9554.89409126 (9366.72822662)
5) Malte Schrodl 9049.16293444
6) Connor Pitts 9026.83812428
7) Ben 7791.8542649
8) Mark 7852.03582088 (7414.1097106)
9) ussgordoncaptain 6633.64996396 (6629.13922078)
10) PPPP 5592.71033033
11) Sid Sid 4244.47124376
12) Jack 4061.42438528
13) Krum-Dawg Millionaire 3821.79230486
14) Henri Lemoine 3844.80835926 (3808.41219121)
15) Alvaro de Menard 3521.88368323
16) Jack G-W 3518.11552372
17) Asher Gabara 3307.75799278
18) Oliver S 3248.5177568
19) DfromBham 3135.85072837
20) Henry A Long 2836.65664724
21) KbBFc7EDIThLfHZlXDubsLbO4Sn1 2571.08099949
22) Alex Radcliffe 2560.22134358
23) 50P 2527.33043929
24) xUhM61t0YrfOzqs6WsG1Ri9Puyl1 2472.42382728
25) Charles Paul 2458.1823912
26) 7xxLZvJWHWNCSR5RCTMWqHFXhXn2 2451.71287464 (2445.52423957)
27) Bm8uhO8tIaS7Cmx39FCD98E7Wf82 2357.08293589
28) nCxw0X3WKUQtAn3TtOm1n7XTa3j2 2328.07797914
29) Zane S Prince 2291.35153359
30) iuNlu9KPFwXv5I7m2vJ8jVgD9Cq2 2276.41857408
31) IYu1usSsnbbk3AF8Hva1fewctg52 2246.98984931
32) iP4vdlGsJRMXXVlQZvK2gkz2hQB2 2193.21980942
33) E3jsGlpxyfRYklpVzjEFav3YDsq2 2131.85360074
34) zqGhcpVY9nhBIUPe6JyT1Y3e3ai1 2060.03368233
35) Mimir 2029.74673884
36) d3eND9W2AlQVAG5A0UGjZNBlypo1 2024.28803512
37) WB4n8Qxx5vTLrrrpztwbVcuh6Sh1 1979.53301472
38) LwVkjD6GoAd3CfY9X3wuOyYU7052 1968.33387515
39) N0nWNq2wBwZMqdlDig1JRbsujwv2 1955.73317173
40) mZmG2xK2WWfIz5vUa1skmLYYcor1 1936.80891996
41) 3BOGfF7eQ5Pd0WdsdiCuXBMKqL32 1920.74839461
42) Sam Dittmer 1912.76541369
43) WQ7cTlbvW0aYWcYh4a2bK4BP3ci2 1901.66604596
44) PTXb34ZXPIco0RMqJ0uLYgQ56zy2 1897.73309422
45) cSeYPgYRJHenisxyY3ZVQsj67ET2 1875.21288384
46) dUsRsTSoq9aBlQ8lgS0YU4Ig2g23 1874.70994335
47) Adrian Kelly 2583.37118157 (1865.90619501)
48) 2vxOzJtBmJMuYb60cT8tPC99du93 1860.39460043
49) bPMMCPUw5BfEGfUJkDxqHgkF9VF3 1802.81425785
50) PuKg3BmRSTcSA8WERvo31aEa5Rx1 1780.34713402
@RobertGrosse I have a problem.... https://twitter.com/polyint/status/1477304866443833348?s=20
@50P I don't get it.
@RobertGrosse Yeah I had the same problem with user ids. If you still need them for something here’s what I got after some web scraping: https://pastebin.com/mbyGzPTk
@RobertGrosse 110k trades on predictit in 1 year
Well, I was planning to wait until the results were officially announced before posting this, but they don't seem to be any hurry to do so, so I'll go ahead and link this now.
https://blog.polybdenum.com/2023/08/01/how-i-came-second-out-of-999-in-the-salem-center-prediction-market-tournament-without-knowing-anything-about-prediction-markets-and-what-i-learned-along-the-way-part-1.html
@RobertGrosse interesting read! I didn’t realize the transaction fees were that high 😆
@RobertGrosse hey man this was an absolute blast to read. I hope you stick with prediction markets as you do really have the talent for it! I would recommend signing up for Kalshi or PredictIt unless you’re comfortable using a VPN, in which polymarket would then have the most similar offerings to Salem. Looking forward to part 2!
@RobertGrosse great read, with a ton of insight.
@RobertGrosse It may have been negative EV, but my fair for the oil market resolving as yes was <1%. , while my fair for the COVID market resolving yes was higher and more uncertain. It would have required a giant COVID spike, but there was one of a large enough magnitude in the prior winter. I think plausibly the gap between those two probabilities exceeded 2.7% (and if a COVID spike occurred, a mask mandate would be somewhat likely, so that wasn't risk free either). The oil prices market had liquid options trading on actual markets, so I could price it as being nearly risk-free more easily.
@HenryALong I thought about mentioning that caveat, but forgot. It's hard to tell when people are ignoring opportunity costs vs just disagreeing with you on the risks.
That being said, testing rates were low enough that I didn't think the case numbers could hit 300k regardless of whether a spike happened.
Great contest everyone! For those who are interviewing (I think this is what happens?), good luck! I hope to meet many of you at this future forecasting conference assuming that's still the plan!
I truly hope they run this contest back next year so we get to do this again.
@zubbybadger good luck to all y’all in the top 4!
@PPPP Totally. Good game everybody and of course especially our inimitable top trader zubby 🎉
Anyway, here is the widget I promised where you can compare yourself to other traders on different metrics: https://salemdata.streamlit.app/
In other news, I just discovered that there is an additional prize for the person with the largest %increase since Feb 15th: https://www.cspicenter.com/p/new-5000-prize-in-the-salem-centercspi
Sadly, I didn't quite win. Under current circumstances, the top 5 on this metric are Malte Schrodl, Sid Sid, DfromBham, PPPP, and then me. However, I would have won if they used February 7th as the starting point instead of February 15th. Unfortunately, by February 15th, the China COVID market had already bounced back, thus raising my starting value. Oh well, it's not like I need the money anyway, and the outcome is pretty much pure luck based on the exact starting date used.
I also would have won if they used February 21st as the starting point. February 15th was basically smack in the middle of a dip between the two peaks of the market.
Another fun fact: There are exactly 999 players who have placed at least one bet. However, Greg Simitian is only the second most recent of them (the 998th player to join). The 999th is Lorenzo Buonanno, who also started this afternoon, but spread their bets among several markets.
@RobertGrosse That was announced a long time ago! Also, totally wild that some of you guys knew how much money everyone had the whole time.
@RobertGrosse how did you know how much each player had on 2/15?
@zubbybadger It was announced back in February, but I didn't see the announcement until just now.
@PPPP The bet data is publicly available, so I wrote a Python script to add it up and compute everyone's current balance and holdings, and thus current portfolio value. Johnny mentioned doing something similar, so I assumed all the top players had done this.
You can similarly simulate historical standings at any given point in time by finding the last bet in each market before the given time and using that as the market value (and of course only including bets and resolutions that happened before that time).
@RobertGrosse nice! If I knew how to write code I would have done that
@RobertGrosse what was the winning percentage return for this?
@50P IIRC, Malte got somewhere around 5.6x.
@RobertGrosse as soon as matte got this market i was llike yeah no chance at the 5k
@RobertGrosse Whew. Thanks!
@50P Yeah, the final numbers weren't close. It's just that it is highly dependent on the exact starting date used, because the markets (and hence my portfolio value) were highly volatile then, and different starting values lead to wildly different final ratios.
Ahhh first sign of shenanigans. Classic
@zubbybadger I'd say the first was Stevie spiking ATACMS last night, but guess that one could at least theoretically pay off.
@RobertGrosse Lol I didn't even see that one
@zubbybadger I guess the other difference is that Stevie is a real account. It's pretty suspicious that a newbie would sign up three days before the end of the contest and put everything in one market. But if they were cheating, you'd think they would have had another account ready to buy it all.
@RobertGrosse I did set up limit orders on some markets that seemed save after I saw the thing with Stevie
@MalteSchrodl Good thinking
@RobertGrosse Yeah I hope there's some way to exclude or de-weight counter trades from these awful trades in their final analysis (including several of mine!). I've really liked this competition but my least favorite part of this has been the monitor the website nonsense that I've had to participate in.
@zubbybadger agree
@zubbybadger I do have a thingy prepared where I could presumably incorporate some adjustment like that. It does have an option to ignore trades after an event happened. But I’m not sure how to programmatically operationalize these really obvious trades. Do you happen to know a (ideally standard) way?
@1941159478 would need to get really technical and probably would eliminate too many legitimate trades. Something like eliminating trades greater than an arbitrary amount of money made within an hour of someone moving a market greater than an arbitrary percentage.
@zubbybadger don't think that would work as this happens often after some event
@zubbybadger That would probably catch some legitimate trades where people had a disagreement over the market value though.
@RobertGrosse yeah I don’t think there’s really much they can do about it.
one could identify trades that are likely to be "crazy". As in someone drops more than x% of there portfolio in a market and the price change gets mostly reversed within some time.
Then remove trades that profited from that trade
would likely also have some false positives tho
@MalteSchrodl That would trigger on my "Supreme Court Ban Race in College Admissions?" bets.
@RobertGrosse true haha
that was clearly deserved
I guess if other people bet in the same direction that is a sign it wasn't crazy?
didn't biden sign this already
@SidSid If a market says "will X happen", then it can't resolve NO until the end of the specified time period. After all, it's still theoretically possible for them to raise the debt ceiling before July 31st.
@RobertGrosse On the one hand yes, on the other hand “A debt limit suspension without a raise” has now happened so maybe now comes the ”would cause this market to settle as NO” part of the update. Pretty please with sugar on top @SalemCenter ?
@1941159478 This would be the first time I’ve ever seen a market resolve No before the end date. If they’re going to resolve this one, there are about 5 more that are equally as unlikely.
@zubbybadger Yeah, there's lots of markets where the outcome was obvious months in advance. I think the first Trump Twitter market did resolve a day early, but that was presumably either a mistake or confusion around the intended end date.
@RobertGrosse "This market will settle as YES if an account belonging to former president Donald Trump tweets at least one time between the opening of the market and March 31, 2023. " I think the word between is why he resolved that a day early than the end date.
But yeah, unless it was like a will X person resign market and they died making it literally impossible to resign, I don't think this should resolve and I don't think it's particularly close.
@zubbybadger I was thinking this question could resolve early specifically because of the update to the description that other markets don’t have. Some other markets also resolved pretty quickly, like the one on the Nigerian election.
But I was also spectacularly wrong about that China Covid market resolving when they temporarily stopped reporting cases based on an update to the description there, so maybe I’m just not great at interpreting these.
@1941159478 My assumption is that what they *meant* was that a supsension would cause it to resolve NO *if that is the only deal that happens*. But I can see how the actual working is misleading.
@1941159478 Yup I get it. I took the update to mean that it just won't be yes in the case of a suspension, not that the market would close. We'll see!
Fun fact: If this somehow resolves YES, Zubby would be 1.61x the second place person.
@RobertGrosse lol, not gonna resolve Yes. Just assuming it shouldn’t resolve at all and the multiple people dumping thousands into this are going to have to bail. It’s of course very unlikely (and not going to happen) that there will be a law raising the debt ceiling by a dollar amount, but it is theoretically possible. This market shouldn’t close until July 31.
@zubbybadger Yeah, I considered picking up a couple YES shares hoping that people would have to sell out early at some point as well. But I didn't want to say anything because why warn them :P
P.S. Looks like it's up to 1.70x now. Sometimes I wonder what it would take to bribe congress to raise the debt ceiling by a dollar...
@RobertGrosse They would have figured it out within a day or 2 :)
@zubbybadger FWIW I interpreted the May 28 update as saying this market would resolve once the debt suspension is signed.
I agree with @Robert and @PPPP that it's annoying that when this topic is written about, it's commonly referred to as a "raise".. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/debt-ceiling-bill-passed-live-senate-vote-b2349392.html
"The Senate has begun a race to pass a bipartisan agreement to raise the $31.4trn US debt ceiling forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy after the deal survived a Republican rebellion in the House of Representatives."
If not following the updates here, hard to have known that a shift in betting strategy should've taken place.. Is this the media's fault, or the wording of this market's fault...
@IndrekRomet I can't really fault Salem on this one, as they did clarify a month ago that suspending it wouldn't count as a YES (scroll down on the comments). The bettors who actually took the time to read the different versions of the bills as they were coming out deserve their gains.
@PPPP Yeah, a valid point, for sure. Those who've put in the time rightfully ought to reap the rewards. But those who confidently "bet and forget" earlier on got left behind, but not because of a totally misguided wager back then imo. Oh well!
@IndrekRomet I think part of the problem is that "will congress reach a deal to avert a debt default" is the question that was on the top of everyone's minds for months, whereas "what is the exact technical language that the deal will use" is a much less interesting question. So it's only natural to assume that the markets are based on questions that people actually care about, rather than a dumb trick question.
@IndrekRomet An analogy would be like if the "Biden 42% Approval Rating on February 1?" market turned out to only resolve YES if his approval rating is *exactly* 42%. Like sure, you *could* create a market asking that question, but it's so dumb and pointless that everyone would assume you're asking about something different instead.
@SalemCenter how about some new markets for the final 2 months? Some ideas that might be interesting: Will Biden's approval rating be 41 or above on July 31? Will the House impeach anyone by July 31 (There have been impeachment articles filed for like 12 people within the past month. If you only want to do one person, would recommend Mayorkas)? Will Dianne Feinstein be a Senator on July 31? Will George Santos be a member of Congress on July 31? (maybe pair those 2 together in one market to make it more interesting) Will Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema announce they are running for re-election by July 31? (again maybe combine into one market to make it interesting) Will Hunter Biden be indicted by July 31? Will Ron DeSantis be polling above 20% on July 31 (resolution source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/)? Plenty of options that I think a lot of participants will find interesting!
It's pretty frustrating to have so many gains erased by a dumb gotcha in the fine print of the resolution criteria. I suppose I should be thankful that I didn't put any more in, and I'll still easily take third, but this slams the door on any hopes I had of reaching second or first.
@RobertGrosse nope, not a dumb gotcha. The Republican bill had a suspension or a raise, which led me to get clarification a month ago. Considering he did clarify, that’s on you for not considering the possibility that maybe the republicans wouldn’t want to vote for a 3 Trillion dollar raise. Happens to the best of us. Also, there are 2 months left and plenty of time for things to change, so don’t be so negative!
@RobertGrosse I agree that this kind of thing can be annoying, but definitely not unfair or handled badly. Is it really that close at the top that loosing <500 S$ is such a big thing?
@MalteSchrodl Catching up was already a long shot, so every setback decreases the odds that much more.
It's like before I'd need one lottery ticket to win and now I need two.
And also, gg @MalteSchrodl on making loads of profit by actually being more accurate instead of just fast. The news about the current plan being a debt limit suspension had been out for several hours, so presumably I wasn’t the only one who read the news and just didn’t catch it.
@1941159478 There was always a high chance of it being a suspension rather than a straight raise. I just overlooked the fine print and assumed this market was actually about a meaningful question, not a gotcha. After all, the actual question that people cared about is whether the debt ceiling would be raised or suspended, not what color the final bill would happen to be painted. And the fact that it was trading at 92% meant that clearly most other people were similarly fooled.
@1941159478 *Most* of the debt ceiling raises in the last decade have taken the form of a suspension rather than an explicit raise to the number. It's not like this was a real surprise.
@1941159478 thanks ^-^
@RobertGrosse yeah, sucks that the media coverage used "suspend" and "raise" indiscriminately. there went about 20% of my portfolio...
"The deal would suspend the debt limit through January of 2025, while capping spending in the 2024 and 2025 budgets, claw back unused COVID funds, speed up the permitting process for some energy projects and includes some extra work requirements for food aid programs for poor Americans."
Looks like the current deal is about suspending the debt limit rather than increasing it, which would resolve NO.
source: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-debt-ceiling-negotiations-push-towards-critical-default-deadline-2023-05-27/
Quick 12% return, Biden and McCarthy are reportedly nearing agreement, as they are forced to due to the X-date being in early June.
The treasury cash balance is collapsing, down 100 billion in the last 2 days. Now only 215 billion left. The X date is certainly going to be before July 31.
It’s going to be the year of the 🪙
@SalemCenter Would a bill suspending the debt limit count? Does minting the coin count?
@SalemCenter please answer this question. By the rules, suspending the debt limit would not resolve yes IMO. This needs to be clarified before we have any concrete action.
To clarify, neither of those count as YES
@SalemCenter Thank you!
@SalemCenter Could you please clarify what the difference between "suspending" and "raising" the debt ceiling is supposed to be? They're normally treated as synonymous. In fact, as Malte Schrodl pointed out, different news stories are describing the same agreement using both forms of language.
@SalemCenter Would a bill abolishing the debt limit entirely also count?
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