Tournament complete!
Thanks for participating. Read about the results, or continue betting on Manifold.
The moderators of this site are of course retards and stole my account. But I gave my LinkedIn and everything and my identity, and my predictions are clear. Capitalism will collapse.
I'm surprised that hardly anyone else touched this market. Presumably you all thought that gambling on the 1% was more fun?
I think the closing date on this is wrong
@SalemCenter according to BEA, the announcement of the 1st (advance) estimate for 2023Q1 GDP is scheduled for April 27, 2023: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2022-10/2023-News-Release-Schedule.pdf
@SalemCenter So this closes a minute before publication to avoid people profiting by just clicking fast, right? I’d propose also closing all the midterm markets before the exit polls come in.
I think things worked pretty well for the Brazilian election market and the Kherson market that recently closed with users competing and not getting much alpha. For the Brazil market, people slowly betted it down to almost 0 as results came in over time, staying pretty close to Polymarket the whole time.
But since more than 20 markets resolve on the same day, I would assume that there are just not enough deep-pocketed users doing that for all of them simultaneously, so there’s going to be a bunch of free money for everyone.
Of course, I also personally just don’t want people catching up that easily :P
@1941159478 TBH you don't have to worry about it given that #7 is at sub 4k.
I expect that 2023 will be a very quiet year for the contest because there will be only about 8-9 users in the running (and that may be a stretch)
Play-money betting
Mana (S$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!