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💬 Proven correct
@JosiahNeeley There’s an explanation here: https://help.manifold.markets/maniswap
deleted made S$90!
I am stuck keeping my wager, but what about rumors of justice dept. looking at validity of this acquisition?
> "We're all trying to get out of it, to be honest," said Andrea Walne, a general partner at Manhattan Venture Partners. ...
> Citing the sharp downturn in equity markets over the last 6 months, Walne said she would put the value of Twitter at this point closer to $10 billion to $12 billion, a far cry from the $44 billion that Musk has agreed to pay. ...
> She's been calling MVP's bankers on Wall Street regularly, trying to find out if there's any wiggle room in the deal. "They're being very very hush hush about everything," she said, adding that at times she's struggled even to get them on the phone.
> "What they're saying to us and others is, not responding and instead saying, you'll hear back from us in a couple days," Walne said, "and then a couple days later we're like, hey checking in, they're like, you'll hear back from us in a couple days. And they will not pick up the phone, they will not respond to anything otherwise."
https://www.businessinsider.com/investor-that-agreed-back-elon-musk-twitter-bid-wants-out-2022-10
@TimH That honestly seems conservative, considering how the judge is likely to react if Musk's side ends up wasting her time. Those lawyers should be highly motivated to close the deal right now.
@MatthewB I guess your unstated premise is that Musk will likely make choices in this matter that any reasonable person would? If so, what's the evidence for that?
I'd like to retract my previous no-information comment (but there appears no way to delete).
@TimH I think that Musk is impulsive and sometimes short-sighted, but not stupid. He tried to get a discount on Twitter once he overpaid for it (as evidenced by the leaks that he tried to negotiate a lower price even as he was nominally trying to get out of the deal), but once it became clear that wasn't happening, he switched gears. Delaying this doesn't do anything for him. Except give him a bigger bill from his lawyers.
@MatthewB No one's saying "stupid." It's just that there's a wide gulf between what appears to be the reasonable next step based on public knowledge and what he does. The problem may be our information. (But if "delaying this doesn't do anything for him," why delay over the past several months?)
This paid off nicely. Can I get my money now to bet on other things?
I knew @1941159478 had a lot of money. But damn.
@ConnorPitt that is unholy.
@SalemCenter this should be closed. Confirmed by Twitter and Elon.
@blatlas source please
"He agrees to do so through a settlement" has been clearly met. Should resolve yes regardless of what happens after this.
@blatlas Thanks; you do have a pint indeed, although these "intends to proceed [...] provided that [...]" may be points that will prevent the moderators from closing it until further confirmatory evidence.
(a point, not a pint...)
@blatlas "The Musk Parties provide this notice without admission of liability and without waiver of or prejudice to any of their rights, including their right to assert the defenses and counterclaims pending in the Action, including in the event the Action is not stayed, Twitter fails or refuses to comply with its obligations under the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement or if the transaction contemplated thereby otherwise fails to close."
Does anyone know how the pricing algorithm works? Sometimes a big bet moves the price less than a smaller one.
@JosiahNeeley There’s an explanation here: https://help.manifold.markets/maniswap
What's the big drop today? The fact that Elon Musk's lawyers sent a letter that pretty much restates what they've been arguing to the media?
@PPPP the letter isn't a restatement of their argument, it is a new argument: that musk should be allowed to terminate based on recent whistleblower disclosures.
personally I do think "Yes" is currently undervalued, but I have closed out of my position as I have higher confidence (and higher EV) in other events
@CB my point is that Musk and his team have been saying that already to the media. It's not a new argument, it's just been inserted into a more Serious Looking Document.
Putting the legality issue aside, I think Musk's actual motivation for backing out of the deal (hint: not bots) is probably fading. TSLA price has been recovering, meaning he needs to commit a smaller % of his own net worth to TWTR equity. And NASDAQ price has also been recovering since then (I'm using NASDAQ price move as a proxy for change what TWTR's price move would be, independent of a merger offer).
@ChrisBoyd 100 agree. His recent stock sale supports the idea that he wants to do the deal again.
Really...today judge rules Twitter must turn over hidden documents to Musk.
@RobertMecca for ONE EMPLOYEE! the judge also REJECTED his lawyers request for documents and identity of two dozen other employees related to the bot counting. She literally gave him access to one of the dozens of things they filed for.
@RobertMecca and this was for Musk's countersuit. Not the case brought by Twitter to force musk to close.
@RobertMecca it's for his hail Mary attempt to accuse Twitter of fraud based on past filings representing bit numbers. Truly desperate move. But he gets the headline that documents were ordered and it doesn't matter what the details are because most don't even look.
Musk trying to remove himself from the deal because of faulty bot information. He could pay the 1 billion termination and walk away. I think he will be successful. The stock would be trading differently if they diagreed with this.
@RobertMecca no way. You aren't following this close enough.
@BTE today judge rules Twitter must turn over hidden documents to Musk.
@RobertMecca you haven't really been paying attention to the stock. It has outperformed the rest of he market the last few months and is moving toward 50 - certainly hasn't been going down at all.
Chancery trial is in October, it'll be five days, and the Chancery Court has reasonably quick decision turnaround. Musk's evidence looks pretty bad. Unless there's something he knows that we all don't, then it seems overwhelmingly likely Musk will be forced to go through w/ the decision.
@pilot1776 Question: why did you buy so few shares if it seems "overwhemingly likely?"
@Flourish I have more (280 shares so ~~127 Sbux rn). I commented yesterday after I doubled down. I'm stretched kinda thin and don't want to be totally BTFO'd in the off chance I'm wrong but putting 12% of my portfolio into a bet should be a good indication of my confidence.
@pilot1776 Gotcha, makes sense. Thanks!
@Flourish Being reasonably new to Manifold I think the way this shows market participation (if you recently bought then it shows your recent buy, otherwise it just shows whether you're betting yes or no) isn't great for this reason. Ideally you'd just be able to see how many shares someone owns or how many sbux they've sunk in. This seems like the worst of both worlds.
@pilot1776 Agreed! Especially since I'm using that information to inform my buy/sell strategy.
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