Will Elon Musk Buy Twitter?
93%
chance
Aug 1, 2023
S$67,503 bet
MatthewB
Matthew B is betting YES at 91%
This paid off nicely. Can I get my money now to bet on other things?
ConnorPitts
Connor Pitts is betting YES at 94%
I knew @1941159478 had a lot of money. But damn.
RobinNikolic
@ConnorPitt that is unholy.
blatlas
Ben is betting YES at 92%
@SalemCenter this should be closed. Confirmed by Twitter and Elon.
IraklisTsatsoulis
Iraklis Tsatsoulis is betting YES at 94%
@blatlas source please
blatlas
Ben is betting YES at 91%
"He agrees to do so through a settlement" has been clearly met. Should resolve yes regardless of what happens after this.
IraklisTsatsoulis
Iraklis Tsatsoulis is betting YES at 91%
@blatlas Thanks; you do have a pint indeed, although these "intends to proceed [...] provided that [...]" may be points that will prevent the moderators from closing it until further confirmatory evidence.
IraklisTsatsoulis
Iraklis Tsatsoulis is betting YES at 91%
(a point, not a pint...)
ZoltarSSG
Zoltar the All Knowing is betting NO at 91%
@blatlas "The Musk Parties provide this notice without admission of liability and without waiver of or prejudice to any of their rights, including their right to assert the defenses and counterclaims pending in the Action, including in the event the Action is not stayed, Twitter fails or refuses to comply with its obligations under the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement or if the transaction contemplated thereby otherwise fails to close."
JosiahNeeley
Josiah Neeley bought S$250 of YES
Does anyone know how the pricing algorithm works? Sometimes a big bet moves the price less than a smaller one.
1941159478
1941159478 bought S$1,500 of YES
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 39%
What's the big drop today? The fact that Elon Musk's lawyers sent a letter that pretty much restates what they've been arguing to the media?
CB
@PPPP the letter isn't a restatement of their argument, it is a new argument: that musk should be allowed to terminate based on recent whistleblower disclosures. personally I do think "Yes" is currently undervalued, but I have closed out of my position as I have higher confidence (and higher EV) in other events
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 39%
@CB my point is that Musk and his team have been saying that already to the media. It's not a new argument, it's just been inserted into a more Serious Looking Document.
CB
CB bought S$10 of YES
Putting the legality issue aside, I think Musk's actual motivation for backing out of the deal (hint: not bots) is probably fading. TSLA price has been recovering, meaning he needs to commit a smaller % of his own net worth to TWTR equity. And NASDAQ price has also been recovering since then (I'm using NASDAQ price move as a proxy for change what TWTR's price move would be, independent of a merger offer).
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 47%
@ChrisBoyd 100 agree. His recent stock sale supports the idea that he wants to do the deal again.
RobertMecca
Robert Mecca is betting NO at 50%
Really...today judge rules Twitter must turn over hidden documents to Musk.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 50%
@RobertMecca for ONE EMPLOYEE! the judge also REJECTED his lawyers request for documents and identity of two dozen other employees related to the bot counting. She literally gave him access to one of the dozens of things they filed for.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 50%
@RobertMecca and this was for Musk's countersuit. Not the case brought by Twitter to force musk to close.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 50%
@RobertMecca it's for his hail Mary attempt to accuse Twitter of fraud based on past filings representing bit numbers. Truly desperate move. But he gets the headline that documents were ordered and it doesn't matter what the details are because most don't even look.
RobertMecca
Robert Mecca is betting NO at 46%
Musk trying to remove himself from the deal because of faulty bot information. He could pay the 1 billion termination and walk away. I think he will be successful. The stock would be trading differently if they diagreed with this.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 51%
@RobertMecca no way. You aren't following this close enough.
RobertMecca
Robert Mecca is betting NO at 50%
@BTE today judge rules Twitter must turn over hidden documents to Musk.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 50%
@RobertMecca you haven't really been paying attention to the stock. It has outperformed the rest of he market the last few months and is moving toward 50 - certainly hasn't been going down at all.
pilot1776
pilot1776 bought S$30 of YES
Chancery trial is in October, it'll be five days, and the Chancery Court has reasonably quick decision turnaround. Musk's evidence looks pretty bad. Unless there's something he knows that we all don't, then it seems overwhelmingly likely Musk will be forced to go through w/ the decision.
Flourish
Flourish is betting NO at 46%
@pilot1776 Question: why did you buy so few shares if it seems "overwhemingly likely?"
pilot1776
pilot1776 is betting YES at 46%
@Flourish I have more (280 shares so ~~127 Sbux rn). I commented yesterday after I doubled down. I'm stretched kinda thin and don't want to be totally BTFO'd in the off chance I'm wrong but putting 12% of my portfolio into a bet should be a good indication of my confidence.
Flourish
Flourish is betting NO at 43%
@pilot1776 Gotcha, makes sense. Thanks!
pilot1776
pilot1776 is betting YES at 51%
@Flourish Being reasonably new to Manifold I think the way this shows market participation (if you recently bought then it shows your recent buy, otherwise it just shows whether you're betting yes or no) isn't great for this reason. Ideally you'd just be able to see how many shares someone owns or how many sbux they've sunk in. This seems like the worst of both worlds.
Flourish
Flourish is betting NO at 53%
@pilot1776 Agreed! Especially since I'm using that information to inform my buy/sell strategy.

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