Will Elon Musk Buy Twitter?
Aug 1, 2023
@blatlas "The Musk Parties provide this notice without admission of liability and without waiver of or prejudice to any of their rights, including their right to assert the defenses and counterclaims pending in the Action, including in the event the Action is not stayed, Twitter fails or refuses to comply with its obligations under the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement or if the transaction contemplated thereby otherwise fails to close."
@PPPP the letter isn't a restatement of their argument, it is a new argument: that musk should be allowed to terminate based on recent whistleblower disclosures. personally I do think "Yes" is currently undervalued, but I have closed out of my position as I have higher confidence (and higher EV) in other events
Putting the legality issue aside, I think Musk's actual motivation for backing out of the deal (hint: not bots) is probably fading. TSLA price has been recovering, meaning he needs to commit a smaller % of his own net worth to TWTR equity. And NASDAQ price has also been recovering since then (I'm using NASDAQ price move as a proxy for change what TWTR's price move would be, independent of a merger offer).
@RobertMecca it's for his hail Mary attempt to accuse Twitter of fraud based on past filings representing bit numbers. Truly desperate move. But he gets the headline that documents were ordered and it doesn't matter what the details are because most don't even look.
Chancery trial is in October, it'll be five days, and the Chancery Court has reasonably quick decision turnaround. Musk's evidence looks pretty bad. Unless there's something he knows that we all don't, then it seems overwhelmingly likely Musk will be forced to go through w/ the decision.
@Flourish I have more (280 shares so ~~127 Sbux rn). I commented yesterday after I doubled down. I'm stretched kinda thin and don't want to be totally BTFO'd in the off chance I'm wrong but putting 12% of my portfolio into a bet should be a good indication of my confidence.
@Flourish Being reasonably new to Manifold I think the way this shows market participation (if you recently bought then it shows your recent buy, otherwise it just shows whether you're betting yes or no) isn't great for this reason. Ideally you'd just be able to see how many shares someone owns or how many sbux they've sunk in. This seems like the worst of both worlds.
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