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💬 Proven correct
@ussgordoncaptain You clicked so fast, you broke the speed barrier, lol
Connor Pitts made S$87!
NBC has now called it too.
@salemcenter Decision Desk just called the 218th house seat for the GOP https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/national/2022-house
@JosiahNeeley Not yet NYT though?
@ConnorPitts Going to be a photo finish which market resolves first tonight
@JosiahNeeley looks like the trump one won out so I get an extra sweet sweet 3% from resolution-hopping
@ussgordoncaptain You clicked so fast, you broke the speed barrier, lol
*sound
@ConnorPitts it's called having 2 tabs open (I think i'm hopelessly far behind but ehh)
@ussgordoncaptain still plenty of time to catch up
@JosiahNeeley You/pitts are at roughly 6.5k
J10N/Ben at roughly 9k
and I'm sitting here at 4k
I think I need like a lucky election type break
@ussgordoncaptain I was only at $2k two weeks ago. Things can change.
When Johnny Ten-Numbers makes 30 mana off 3000:
https://ibb.co/Xy4k8r9
Betting markets are consitentently higher
https://polymarket.com/midterms
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election
I am less optimistic after the New York special election.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/
80% on metaculus, 79% on 538 (updated 9 hours ago). Glad they agree :p
Still 76% on 538, 78% on Metaculus.
Should be an easy yes. GOP just needs to pick up 7 seats.
Would be absolutely stunned if Dems held the House. Even with Dobbs, I don't see a path to them holding.
Again there is absurd fraud here, someone put it below 25% and then whoever saw it first made a lot of money. If I had seen this an hour ago I could
@RyanAlweiss The trade that put it down to 25% was one of the first trades early on when the market opened. So it's hard to tell if it's fraud or just a market inefficiency before the price stabilized.
Same as what I said on the other market, incompetence is much more likely than fraud.
@RyanAlweiss i expect that the number of participants here is relatively small. More like manipulation, as opposed to fraud (there's no deception). Basically, it comes down to recognizing what sized trades will move the needle
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