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Dem has led the last 4 polls, including Trafalgar; 538 has 50-50, but this hasn't updated sufficiently on the most recent information. Fair value about 40%.
@blatlas What's holding this up is the polling misses in Wisconsin in previous elections. Some very large swings, and there's honest/fair debate on whether or not pollsters have adjusted enough. The polls are likely very much under-selling Johnson
@DfromBham You'll find those errors to be concentrated in a couple low-reputation polls. Adjusting those (Ipsos) out, it looks to me like recent polls were mostly +-1% in the 2018 cycle.
@blatlas true, they were "better" in last midterms than 2016/2020. I still assert that in a race like this one, with a well-established incumbent, this wall play out with an even larger swing. That's not to say that he's not in trouble, because he IS on shaky ground.
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