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@SalemCenter It’s March in Ukraine
" as of the end of the night local time" sounds to me like 7 am on Feb 28, which is 12 hours from this comment being posted.
This is so close that it may depend on the time zone.
@KennethGriffith I was calculating this, there are a large amount of random buildings that are under UKR control still, and ISW is typically going to have a 1 day lag
Too late now
Question are you resolving on the Orange (claimed) or red (assessed) area?
@salemcenter also I'd reccomend betting on specific railyards rather than cities, The main logistical network of the war is based on rail so Railyard control has a lot more to do with who's winning than most other actions.
With more than a month left, I like this one.
Good Judgment Open has a similar question with a pretty active comment section: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war
@1941159478 How do you see the comments? Do you have to sign up first?
@RobertGrosse Yup, that how they get you. And then it’s in the 'Activity' tab. You also might want to tick the 'Exclude forecasts without rationales' box.
Now also on Insight Prediction: https://insightprediction.com/m/141886/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-february-28th-2023
Shout-out to Insight Prediction Head of Markets @EzraBrodey !
what constitutes "Full control"?
It would have been better to pick a specific geographic point, like the city center
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