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Will Trump Announce in 2022?
Resolved
YES
Nov 16
S$70,282 bet

đź’¬ Proven correct

AndyMartin
Andy Martin bought S$1,001 of YES
> "President Trump is going to announce on Tuesday that he is running for president," Miller told former Trump aide Steve Bannon on his popular "War Room" podcast. https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-announce-2024-presidential-bid-222107627.html
Andy Martin made S$114!
LorinElijahBroadbent
Lorin Elijah Broadbent is betting NO at 96%
HODL
ConnorPitts
Connor Pitts is betting YES at 96%
@LorinElijahBroadbent diamond hands, rocket rocket rocket, confetti
LorinElijahBroadbent
Lorin Elijah Broadbent is betting NO at 96%
ColinMcRoberts
Colin McRoberts is betting NO at 89%
I fully realize I'm making a long-shot bet here, but I'm surprised the price is so high based largely on statements by Trump and his team. They aren't just dishonest, they're chaotic and unpredictable; I wouldn't give this 90% odds ten minutes prior to the announcement, if he had a script in hand declaring his campaign.
PPPP
PPPP is betting NO at 88%
@ColinMcRoberts if it were "will Trump announce tonight?" I'd be right there with you, but it's hard for me to see him not doing it at some point this year.
ColinMcRoberts
Colin McRoberts is betting NO at 94%
@PPPP I think you're right about it being this year; I'll be happy if he postpones a day and I can sell below 60. But I won't be surprised if I eat this one.
AndyMartin
Andy Martin is betting YES at 90%
https://www.ft.com/content/32832f0e-57e2-4d7b-8bb3-1e3e8218c109 > But Jason Miller, an adviser to Trump, appeared on the podcast of the former president’s one-time chief political strategist Steve Bannon on Friday and insisted he would go ahead. > > “President Trump is going to announce on Tuesday that he is running for president, and it is going to be a very professional, very buttoned up announcement,” Miller said. > > He added that the former president told him: “Of course I’m running. I’m going to do this, and I want to make sure that people know that I’m fired up, and we’ve got to get the country back on track.”
AndyMartin
Andy Martin sold S$690 of YES
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/14/trump-campaign-advisers-2024/ > A trio of longtime Republican operatives will lead Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, which the former president is set to announce Tuesday evening in the ballroom of his private Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., according to five people familiar with the staffing decisions.
AndyMartin
Andy Martin bought S$1,001 of YES
> "President Trump is going to announce on Tuesday that he is running for president," Miller told former Trump aide Steve Bannon on his popular "War Room" podcast. https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-announce-2024-presidential-bid-222107627.html
NathanKrummen
@SalemCenter can we get clarity on the interpretation of “officially” here? Is verbal statement what we’re looking for or actually filing of presidential status
Ben
Ben is betting YES at 47%
Strange to me that this trades with no beta to GOP midterms chances. The world in which he doesn't announce is one in which GOP underperforms in the midterms; that looks very unlikely now that they're likely to win both houses.
LorinElijahBroadbent
Lorin Elijah Broadbent is betting NO at 47%
@blatlas not sure I agree. If GOP does really well with Trump in the background, it’s harder to argue the party needs him. In that scenario Trump may worry about running, losing, and being embarrassed.
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 46%
@LorinElijahBroadbent if a high % of Trump-endorsed candidates win (esp. the more contentious ones like Oz, Masters, Vance, Gibbs, Lake), I think that gives Trump a basis to say he’s a kingmaker and still the party leader.
LorinElijahBroadbent
Lorin Elijah Broadbent is betting NO at 46%
@PPPP I agree that's a valid potential scenario, but it's not the only one. The most likely result is that Republicans win both houses but not by an overwhelming margin and that Masters and Gibbs both lose. While Trump did boost Oz and Vance, Oz has been distancing himself from that endorsement lately and Vance already had an established presence that allows him more leeway to do so in the future. It's not clear to me that GOP winning both houses necessarily means Trump will announce.
PPPP
PPPP is betting YES at 46%
@LorinElijahBroadbent RCP is predicting Masters wins, so that race likes a coin flip. And I get your points, but think about it less objectively and more from the perspective of Trump and his inner circle- if he can make a claim to have been kingmaker that will be plausible to the average-informed Republican (and most Republicans are still open to Trump, even if less enthusiastic than in, say 2020), it makes sense to jump in and try to clear the field. One other thing I’d be thinking if I advised Trump - I’d want to announce ahead of any indictment, so Trump could spin the indictment as “unprecedented politically motivated witch hunt” rather than making it look as if Trump was reacting to the indictment.
LorinElijahBroadbent
Lorin Elijah Broadbent is betting NO at 46%
@PPPP I see your point for sure, seems reasonable. Will be interesting to see what he does.
belikewater
belikewater sold S$34 of NO
I think he'll be indicted for violating the Espionage Act soon and convicted possibly in late 2022 but probably in 2023. Most of his energy is likely now devoted to figuring out how to stay out of jail. I suspect he may announce his candidacy just to increase chaos, though, as he may think that he has nothing to lose by doing that and that it may be the only potential way to save himself.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 63%
@belikewater He loses A LOT if he does that. Currently he isn’t paying his own legal bills, his PAC and the GOP are. He loses all of those financial resources immediately upon announcing. I could see some faux announcement that doesn’t include filing paperwork maybe.
belikewater
@BTE I didn't realize he would lose all that if he announces. Thanks for sharing that.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 61%
His political career is over. He can’t afford to run again, literally. Not even close.
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 61%
If he is indicted you think it’s a good idea for him to be on tv everyday ridiculing the judge and prosecutors which we all know he would do?!? Of course not. He will get slammed with contempt of court and thrown in jail.
KendallKaut
Whether before the election or after, I can't imagine he goes into 2023 without announcing.
ChristopherSampson
Christopher Sampson is betting NO at 50%
@KendallKaut why not?

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