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đź’¬ Proven correct
> "President Trump is going to announce on Tuesday that he is running for president," Miller told former Trump aide Steve Bannon on his popular "War Room" podcast.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-announce-2024-presidential-bid-222107627.html
Andy Martin made S$114!
I fully realize I'm making a long-shot bet here, but I'm surprised the price is so high based largely on statements by Trump and his team. They aren't just dishonest, they're chaotic and unpredictable; I wouldn't give this 90% odds ten minutes prior to the announcement, if he had a script in hand declaring his campaign.
@ColinMcRoberts if it were "will Trump announce tonight?" I'd be right there with you, but it's hard for me to see him not doing it at some point this year.
@PPPP I think you're right about it being this year; I'll be happy if he postpones a day and I can sell below 60. But I won't be surprised if I eat this one.
https://www.ft.com/content/32832f0e-57e2-4d7b-8bb3-1e3e8218c109
> But Jason Miller, an adviser to Trump, appeared on the podcast of the former president’s one-time chief political strategist Steve Bannon on Friday and insisted he would go ahead.
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> “President Trump is going to announce on Tuesday that he is running for president, and it is going to be a very professional, very buttoned up announcement,” Miller said.
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> He added that the former president told him: “Of course I’m running. I’m going to do this, and I want to make sure that people know that I’m fired up, and we’ve got to get the country back on track.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/14/trump-campaign-advisers-2024/
> A trio of longtime Republican operatives will lead Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, which the former president is set to announce Tuesday evening in the ballroom of his private Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., according to five people familiar with the staffing decisions.
> "President Trump is going to announce on Tuesday that he is running for president," Miller told former Trump aide Steve Bannon on his popular "War Room" podcast.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-announce-2024-presidential-bid-222107627.html
@SalemCenter can we get clarity on the interpretation of “officially” here? Is verbal statement what we’re looking for or actually filing of presidential status
Strange to me that this trades with no beta to GOP midterms chances. The world in which he doesn't announce is one in which GOP underperforms in the midterms; that looks very unlikely now that they're likely to win both houses.
@blatlas not sure I agree. If GOP does really well with Trump in the background, it’s harder to argue the party needs him. In that scenario Trump may worry about running, losing, and being embarrassed.
@LorinElijahBroadbent if a high % of Trump-endorsed candidates win (esp. the more contentious ones like Oz, Masters, Vance, Gibbs, Lake), I think that gives Trump a basis to say he’s a kingmaker and still the party leader.
@PPPP I agree that's a valid potential scenario, but it's not the only one. The most likely result is that Republicans win both houses but not by an overwhelming margin and that Masters and Gibbs both lose. While Trump did boost Oz and Vance, Oz has been distancing himself from that endorsement lately and Vance already had an established presence that allows him more leeway to do so in the future. It's not clear to me that GOP winning both houses necessarily means Trump will announce.
@LorinElijahBroadbent RCP is predicting Masters wins, so that race likes a coin flip. And I get your points, but think about it less objectively and more from the perspective of Trump and his inner circle- if he can make a claim to have been kingmaker that will be plausible to the average-informed Republican (and most Republicans are still open to Trump, even if less enthusiastic than in, say 2020), it makes sense to jump in and try to clear the field. One other thing I’d be thinking if I advised Trump - I’d want to announce ahead of any indictment, so Trump could spin the indictment as “unprecedented politically motivated witch hunt” rather than making it look as if Trump was reacting to the indictment.
@PPPP I see your point for sure, seems reasonable. Will be interesting to see what he does.
I think he'll be indicted for violating the Espionage Act soon and convicted possibly in late 2022 but probably in 2023. Most of his energy is likely now devoted to figuring out how to stay out of jail. I suspect he may announce his candidacy just to increase chaos, though, as he may think that he has nothing to lose by doing that and that it may be the only potential way to save himself.
@belikewater He loses A LOT if he does that. Currently he isn’t paying his own legal bills, his PAC and the GOP are. He loses all of those financial resources immediately upon announcing. I could see some faux announcement that doesn’t include filing paperwork maybe.
@BTE I didn't realize he would lose all that if he announces. Thanks for sharing that.
His political career is over. He can’t afford to run again, literally. Not even close.
If he is indicted you think it’s a good idea for him to be on tv everyday ridiculing the judge and prosecutors which we all know he would do?!? Of course not. He will get slammed with contempt of court and thrown in jail.
Whether before the election or after, I can't imagine he goes into 2023 without announcing.
@KendallKaut why not?
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