Tournament complete!
Thanks for participating. Read about the results, or continue betting on Manifold.
World GDP Growth 3% or More in 2022?
Resolved
YES
Jun 30
S$19,812 bet

đź’¬ Proven correct

MalteSchrodl
Malte Schrödl bought S$400 of YES
@salemcenter will this resolve according to the data that is directly visible on the page and is rounded to the first decimal place or the underlying data (which can be downloaded on the same page)
Malte Schrödl made S$196!
MalteSchrodl
Malte Schrödl bought S$400 of YES
@salemcenter will this resolve according to the data that is directly visible on the page and is rounded to the first decimal place or the underlying data (which can be downloaded on the same page)
50P
50P is betting YES at 67%
@MalteSchrodl Send location
SalemCenter
It will be based on the most exact data, not necessarily the graph
50P
50P is betting YES at 67%
ah, did not open api file from the zip
del
deleted sold S$109 of NO
@SalemCenter The numbers for 2022 just got added in the link in the description. So I think this and the question on China’s GDP could resolve.
PPPP
PPPP bought S$1,000 of YES
@salemcenter I'd argue this should resolve YES now. We have official documents from the World Bank reporting that 2022 global GDP growth was 3.1%. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/9891892a-bc69-46fa-8ecc-e58b9fa019e8/content See: p. xv Our baseline scenario calls for global growth to slow from 3.1 percent in 2022 to 2.1 percent in 2023 pp. xvii, 3 - "After growing 3.1 percent last year" p. 4- table shows 3.1% for global growth
del
deleted is betting NO at 64%
@PPPP I haven’t read the entire report, but that table on page 4 has a footnote for the 2022 data: "e = estimate (actual data for commodity prices)" My interpretation is that this means it’s still more of a nowcast than the official numbers for the year.
BTE
BTE bought S$10 of YES
2021 +5.8% 2020 -3.3% 2019 +2.6% 2018 +3.3% 2017 +3.4% 2016 +2.8% 2015 +3.1% 2014 +3.1% 2013 +2.8% 2012 +2.7% 2011 +3.3% 2010 +4.5%
BTE
BTE is betting YES at 38%
Take out 2020 and it looks like a no-brainer.
riffraffselbow
riffraffselbow is betting NO at 46%
@BTE take out 2020 and it's 7 out of 11 in that time period, which isn't a "no-brainer"
BTE
BTE is betting YES at 46%
@riffraffselbow lol, fair enough. I am biased ;-)

Play-money betting

Mana (S$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!