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💬 Proven correct
@RobertGrosse Very curious if he knows what's going on or if he's just tailing me lol. Pew released a poll at 38%. It wasn't enough to bring us under, but I thought it would be close. I don't have anything else on my list that's could be dropping today and 538 doesn't usually update until after 9 AM. You never know though!
guyin1stplace made S$310!
@zubbybadger do you know how exactly to calculate 1 day of change on the 538 model, it keeps fluctuating with 0 polls added so it might go below 42% with just day to day variation
I don't believe this is correct. Biden's approval rating only moves when a new poll is added. The big move yesterday was due to a Pew poll being added at 38%. The big move Monday was due to a Marist poll being added at 43%. The big move this weekend was due to 2 polls, CBS and NBC, being added at 44% and 45%, respectively.
The key to these markets is guessing which polls are coming (ie, are they daily [only Rasmussen], weekly, or basically monthly), knowing how the 538 model weights and adjusts them (see the polls link at the bottom of this page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), and predicting how Biden's approval rating will move based on that information. It's a combination of art and science. For example, I began buying No here because 1) the documents scandal wasn't going away and 2) I knew we were due for a bunch of heavy monthly polls that 538 adjusts downwards.
@zubbybadger Man, you and Johnny are giving me a heart attack, suddenly selling it down to 75% and back for no apparent reason. I kept searching Google and Twitter to try to figure out what you knew, but I came up empty.
@RobertGrosse Very curious if he knows what's going on or if he's just tailing me lol. Pew released a poll at 38%. It wasn't enough to bring us under, but I thought it would be close. I don't have anything else on my list that's could be dropping today and 538 doesn't usually update until after 9 AM. You never know though!
No idea what’s going on, just blindly following Kalshi, which is at like 70%: https://kalshi.com/events/538APPROVE-23FEB01/markets/538APPROVE-23FEB01-B41.2/
But yeah that resolution is a later in the day so maybe that’s the difference. And I am starting to worry that the Kalshi market is just you @zubbybadger in a wig.
@1941159478 Lol respect for admitting that. Yeah I'm in the Kalshi market and heavily invested there. Tomorrow we get another Rasmussen, Yougov/Economist, plus the possibility for a couple other heavily weighted polls (Monmouth and Fox especially). Unfortunately all of those are likely to show up after 9 AM EST. I think the NO side's best bet is something random in the next couple of hours (maybe Yahoo?) or AP-NORC at midnight.
@zubbybadger Wow, it sounds like you are incredibly knowledgeable and invested in this. And I thought I was clever just by checking the 538 average periodically to see if it goes up or down.
@RobertGrosse Yeah, I didn't even play this right though. Those polls over the weekend caught me completely off guard. I still might have set myself up to lose if there's something coming that I don't know about!
@zubbybadger just a kind reminder that Kalshi is far from a panacea; this market https://kalshi.com/events/GDPCN-22/markets/GDPCN-22-A4/?details was at 82% minutes before the Chinese GDP announcement (at 3%), and it obviously pulled along the relevant market here: https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/SalemCenter/china-gdp-growth-4-or-more-in-2022
@IraklisTsatsoulis Kalshi is complete garbage. Most of the markets are illiquid. Any liquidity you do see is provided by Kalshi's internal trading team. With the exceptions of fed rate hikes and projecting CPI, most markets would have barely any trading without Kalshi's internal liquidity.
Also, on a more vibes based note, the CEO thinks he's the next Jamie Dimon, but appears to be incompetent. They lobbied to get PredictIt and Polymarket shut down only to fail to get elections contracts on their own. They barely offer any real political contracts for reasons that have not been explained despite almost all of their traders being people who like that thing. The site is the least fun website I've ever been to. While I'll take their money for now, I doubt they'll last very long and will jump to the next big thing as soon as it pops up. I certainly would NOT use their odds as any credible form of forecasting.
@zubbybadger Agree. If anything people should be using the Salem markers to bet on Kalshi rather than the reverse.
@zubbybadger So this market will be a "who can stake out 8:58 PM the best"
@salemcenter Can we get this again for April 1? This is one of the craziest markets I've been in (both in real life and in the competition!)
@SalemCenter apparently the tag is case sensitive
@zubbybadger I understand if you don't want to reveal your secrets, but I'm dying to know how you knew to dump this hours *before* the new poll showed up in the 538 average.
@RobertGrosse I saw Chuck Todd talking about the NBC poll on GMA on twitter. The CBS poll dropped like 30 minutes later which was a complete surprise to me, which made me sell a lot more. Those were probably the 2 worst polls for the No holders to get. Solely on vibes, I think No wins, but it’s pretty much a coin flip at this point.
Looking very close to GG folks!
Ok it has to be asked
If biden is at 42.0% approval does this resolve YES or NO
@ussgordoncaptain Resolution criteria is "at least 42%", so it would be YES.
We're finally under!!
@zubbybadger yeah betting on this market was a mistake, should have waited until *after* the GDP markets resolved to even bother betting here
@ussgordoncaptain Sorry man. I prob would have done what you just did
Uh oh! At least it's not real money. Maybe 42.9 is the low at least :)
@zubbybadger This is going to decide which one of us moves to top 6
@ussgordoncaptain I like my chances!
@zubbybadger Looks like both of us are in top 6! I wonder how many live players even exist at this point, I feel like this contest went on too long and is too snowbally
@ussgordoncaptain I mean it really just takes a couple good wins to get up near the top. I think it would be stupid for people who made any gains to give up.
I guess you guys just think this is a bond?
@zubbybadger Joe is good for a stumble, and the whole document debacle may bring him back down. Some polling is starting to show that
He's currently almost 43% so this might be a little bit undervalues unless people are factoring in something else they predict in the next two months. Curious about reasoning here.
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