Over 100,000 Monkeypox Cases in 2022?
Jan 1, 2023
Really hard to see how this is realistically close to 20% probability. Price has barely budged for a month, despite 7dma case rate halving since then. And obviously on the status quo path, this doesn't get close. So each day without an upward shock makes the required explosion to get to 100k increasingly unlikely. Comparing the CDC numbers to more local data, we see that: NYC reports 90% of NY state's cases, and daily rate has fallen 80% from peak. San Francisco and Los Angeles County report 60% of CA's cases, and daily rates are respectively down ~60% and ~90% from peak. Miami-Dade and Broward Counties report almost 60% of FL's cases, and daily rates appear to have fallen by at least half since peak. Just this handful of places constitute about 1/3 of all US cases reported. If they can't get R > 1 here, hard to see large outbreaks elsewhere. Heck there are 7 states with single digit cases still! There are about 13 weeks left in the year, need to average ~6k cases per week to get to 100k cases cumulative. Prior peak was ~3k, and on the upswing it took a month to get from the current level to that peak rate. Even if magically that growth path started tomorrow, you'd be at ~65k cases needed with 9 weeks left. The rate would have to double again over November and then again over December to make it close. A fair price is probably 1% but I suspect people don't want to tie up their money for months for a 20% profit. See: (a) https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/data/health-tools/monkeypox.page#surveillance (b) https://sf.gov/data/mpx-case-counts, http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/monkeypox/data/index.htm (c) https://www.flhealthcharts.gov/ChartsReports/rdPage.aspx
@MatthewLilley I think the only reason it is not moving is because people are putting their money in markets that are expiring sooner. With prediction markets, you have to consider the time value of money, so no "prediction" is actually a real prediction. There are a lot of markets ending at the end of the year, but there are a lot that are ending sooner that you can (maybe) get a better return on. For instance, the GDP market is way over valued (Kalshi is putting it at 28% right now) and it's expiring much sooner, so the price is probably going to be corrected sooner than in this market.
@RobertMecca if you plot the daily or weekly growth rate over the last 3 months and project forward, we hit 100k cases by some time in september. Even if growth slows (which it could for a variety of reasons), it’s extremely unlikely to get below 1, which it would need to to keep cases below 100k. We’re at just under 1k cases/day with > 100 days left in the year.
@Quincy I wouldn't assume the growth rate will continue. Vaccination efforts are ongoing, the gay community is small and therefore behavioral adaptation will happen faster, as well as there being a smaller pool of people for it to spread to. So far cases have overwhelmingly been in extremely sexually active men and we just exited an extremely sexual active period for those men (pride).
It's clear that growth in cases has slowed in the US: https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html See also the "MonkeyPox" tab here and select data for the US alone: https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html Anyone can get monkeypox, but nearly all cases have been identified in MSM, and there has been little to no onward spread outside the MSM community. Yes, people other than MSM are getting it, but most spread has occurred via MSM with large numbers of sexual contacts. Even if closeted gay men spread it to their wives, their wives by and large aren't spreading it further. Non-MSM people are much less likely to transmit the virus to another person. With a 7-day average of reported cases in the US hovering around 700/day and 136 days left in the forecast period, we'd see ~95k more cases, for a total of ~110k by the end of the year if cases continued to be reported at this rate. But I think the 7-day average is likely to fall as the MSM network saturates.
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