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Over 100,000 Monkeypox Cases in 2022?
Resolved
NO
Jan 1
S$62,484 bet

💬 Proven correct

abc
A bought S$100 of NO
Over time, the composition of participants in this contest will shift away from people who learned about it early.
A made S$114!
arae
arae bought S$850 of NO
Just logged into Salem Center. This should be even lower but I can't transfer M$ from my main account to bet it down.
JohnGrossWhitaker
Jack G-W is betting NO at 4%
@arae it's a tournament so people are constrained on how much they how. Time value of money obviously stops this from getting that much lower (even if realistically it should be less than 1%)
JohnGrossWhitaker
Jack G-W is betting NO at 4%
*have
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 4%
@arae there are 5 different markets which all will resolve No, it's more a matter of optimizing where you place your money so you get enough markets to meet the minimum
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 4%
@arae there aren't enough traders that stand a chance to really make a difference at this point
JohnGrossWhitaker
Jack G-W is betting NO at 4%
@ussgordoncaptain yeah and a lot of people take the more unlikely just because this whole thing is zero-sum. A lot of YOLOing on markets that are almost certainly resolving no (like this one)
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 4%
@JohnGrossWhitaker For some reason I thought everyone below me/Zubbybadger had stopped playing. Do you think any of us ranked below 6 have a chance at top 5?
JohnGrossWhitaker
Jack G-W is betting NO at 4%
@ussgordoncaptain Maybe one of us could get 4th or 5th, especially if taking more risky odds on stuff. I think I was up to 8 like a month ago for a couple days. My impression is that at least the top 2 or 3 have like ~2-3x my total portfolio value so I don't realistically think anybody in the 9-20 range could hit that. I play quite a bit classes but am not as serious about it as I was in september or october
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 4%
@JohnGrossWhitaker yeah I was almost going to be good at this then I had to take a really long break, I'm barely 7th rn with NW of 4.7k I figure the top 2 have NW of around 9k because they had more time to HFT
JohnGrossWhitaker
Jack G-W is betting NO at 4%
@ussgordoncaptain yeah I only was really actively into this after midterms and my NW is like 3.5K so I might not even make it up to you. I can only consistently get like 10%/2Months in intrest or something like that. I know that someone in the top two very causally dropped my entire net worth on a market pre-resolution and also seemed to have investments in other markets at the same time. Mostly playing for fun at this point but we also might get invited to some conference (I think I did a form late also) I don't really consider myself a great forecaster so I've always thought it would be really funny if I did super well in this.
RobertGrosse
@ussgordoncaptain My estimate is that Johny is currently at 12k, and 5th place is over 6k (more than double my money). I have no realistic chance of top 5, so I've pretty much given up, since there's no way to win when the top 5 have double your bankroll *and* are a lot more active than you are.
RobertGrosse
guyin2ndplace bought S$500 of NO
And of course, not just that the top 5 have over double my money and are more active, but that the best profit opportunities are probably all in the past. *That* was the real kicker that made me almost give up on Salem entirely. Chances are I still will, but maybe I'll keep playing and see if I can make it into the top 10 again, even though there's no prize for that. It's frustrating to realize that even if I could say, find a superior trading strategy to get a 0.1% edge on everything (probably optimistic), that still wouldn't be enough to advance. In order to even have a chance of getting into the top 5, I'd have to somehow pull what Gordon did on SBF *five times in a row* against people who have proven much faster and more dedicated than me.
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 3%
@RobertGrosse There is large edges to be had in this market, but all the edges come from having higher APM than the other contestants (see the SBF indictment market)
RobertGrosse
guyin2ndplace is betting NO at 3%
@ussgordoncaptain Looks like Dylan Levi King just donated a massive amount of money to everyone in the China COVID market, bringing me up to 10th place. Now I just need to somehow catch a couple more lucky breaks like that and I might have a chance.
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting NO at 3%
@RobertGrosse god I need to get a new API checker for those sorts of events, I figured that at this point most of that sort of dead money was gone and it was only gonna be APM games
MatthewLilley
Matthew Lilley is betting NO at 21%
Really hard to see how this is realistically close to 20% probability. Price has barely budged for a month, despite 7dma case rate halving since then. And obviously on the status quo path, this doesn't get close. So each day without an upward shock makes the required explosion to get to 100k increasingly unlikely. Comparing the CDC numbers to more local data, we see that: NYC reports 90% of NY state's cases, and daily rate has fallen 80% from peak. San Francisco and Los Angeles County report 60% of CA's cases, and daily rates are respectively down ~60% and ~90% from peak. Miami-Dade and Broward Counties report almost 60% of FL's cases, and daily rates appear to have fallen by at least half since peak. Just this handful of places constitute about 1/3 of all US cases reported. If they can't get R > 1 here, hard to see large outbreaks elsewhere. Heck there are 7 states with single digit cases still! There are about 13 weeks left in the year, need to average ~6k cases per week to get to 100k cases cumulative. Prior peak was ~3k, and on the upswing it took a month to get from the current level to that peak rate. Even if magically that growth path started tomorrow, you'd be at ~65k cases needed with 9 weeks left. The rate would have to double again over November and then again over December to make it close. A fair price is probably 1% but I suspect people don't want to tie up their money for months for a 20% profit. See: (a) https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/data/health-tools/monkeypox.page#surveillance (b) https://sf.gov/data/mpx-case-counts, http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/monkeypox/data/index.htm (c) https://www.flhealthcharts.gov/ChartsReports/rdPage.aspx
JJGG
@MatthewLilley I think the only reason it is not moving is because people are putting their money in markets that are expiring sooner. With prediction markets, you have to consider the time value of money, so no "prediction" is actually a real prediction. There are a lot of markets ending at the end of the year, but there are a lot that are ending sooner that you can (maybe) get a better return on. For instance, the GDP market is way over valued (Kalshi is putting it at 28% right now) and it's expiring much sooner, so the price is probably going to be corrected sooner than in this market.
DavidSmith
David Smith is betting NO at 34%
It's not going to even hit 40,000
CB
CB is betting NO at 41%
(headline: "WHO: Monkeypox cases drop 21%, reversing month-long increase")
DavidSmith
David Smith is betting NO at 34%
@ChrisBoyd yeah once something like this starts dropping that fast, it means that containment measures are working. Awareness is out there now and behaviors are adapting.
abc
A bought S$100 of NO
Over time, the composition of participants in this contest will shift away from people who learned about it early.
JacobS
Jacob S bought S$50 of NO
Ditto, exponential increases in case rates have stalled
DavidSmith
David Smith is betting NO at 34%
@JacobS and reversed
Quincy
Quincy sold S$107 of YES
I'm revising my opinion based on data that came out today. Cases/week is the same as it was 3 weeks ago. At this rate there will not be 100k US cases this year.
DavidSmith
David Smith bought S$20 of NO
@Quincy seems to be under control now.
Quincy
@DavidSmith agreed. I sold my yes 10 days ago.
RobertMecca
Robert Mecca is betting NO at 64%
In the US currently, about 10K. It is identified, and to believe another 90K in 5 months is pretty reckless.
Quincy
Quincy is betting YES at 62%
@RobertMecca if you plot the daily or weekly growth rate over the last 3 months and project forward, we hit 100k cases by some time in september. Even if growth slows (which it could for a variety of reasons), it’s extremely unlikely to get below 1, which it would need to to keep cases below 100k. We’re at just under 1k cases/day with > 100 days left in the year.
arj
arj is betting YES at 64%
@Quincy I heard the dogs are getting it now
KevinDaley
Kevin Daley is betting NO at 67%
@Quincy I wouldn't assume the growth rate will continue. Vaccination efforts are ongoing, the gay community is small and therefore behavioral adaptation will happen faster, as well as there being a smaller pool of people for it to spread to. So far cases have overwhelmingly been in extremely sexually active men and we just exited an extremely sexual active period for those men (pride).
BTE
BTE is betting YES at 67%
@KevinDaley same mistake people made with HIV. Lots of gay men are closeted and have wives they then passed it to.
KevinDaley
Kevin Daley is betting NO at 64%
@BTE There are a LOT less closeted gay men proportionally than there was in 1980. Especially among ages 20-30.
BTE
BTE is betting YES at 64%
@KevinDaley It's a bigger issue in EU but still a major issue https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1211301
KevinDaley
Kevin Daley is betting NO at 60%
@BTE That research is pretty low quality overall. And even it finds that the overwhelming majority of north american gay men are out, even though that includes mexico. This question refers to US cases.
belikewater
belikewater is betting NO at 45%
It's clear that growth in cases has slowed in the US: https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html See also the "MonkeyPox" tab here and select data for the US alone: https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html Anyone can get monkeypox, but nearly all cases have been identified in MSM, and there has been little to no onward spread outside the MSM community. Yes, people other than MSM are getting it, but most spread has occurred via MSM with large numbers of sexual contacts. Even if closeted gay men spread it to their wives, their wives by and large aren't spreading it further. Non-MSM people are much less likely to transmit the virus to another person. With a 7-day average of reported cases in the US hovering around 700/day and 136 days left in the forecast period, we'd see ~95k more cases, for a total of ~110k by the end of the year if cases continued to be reported at this rate. But I think the 7-day average is likely to fall as the MSM network saturates.
BTE
BTE is betting YES at 70%
Something is wrong here. Somehow my limit NO gave me significantly more NO shares than it should have. It should have just canceled out my earlier YES bet and taken the profit.
Platok
betting on bussy, sussy market

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