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@SalemCenter You appear to have accidentally resolved this market *twice*, giving people on the NO side double the money they should have gotten. Can you please fix this? It is completely unfair and means some top players (notably Mark) now have way more money than they should have.
@RobertGrosse This appears to be accurate after inspecting the logs. I will write a script to subtract the second payout from user balances.
@JamesGrugett Thanks!
@RobertGrosse It is done! You can see the updated balance reflected in, e.g. this user's portfolio graph: https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/VictorLevoso?tab=bets
Oh wait, only I can see your portfolios haha. Cheers.
@JamesGrugett yeah though you can backcalculate everyone's portfolio using a scraper+python
@JamesGrugett It seems like I may have had my balance entirely removed by your script. My current balance is now in the negative. Could you confirm?
@AlexanderTippett Yes, the script subtracted from your balance the amount that was erroneously added. If you invested that, you might have gotten a negative balance. That's no problem--just sell some of your investments!
Kalshi now is at 18% for >3.5% growth
https://kalshi.com/events/GDP-232022%20Q4/markets/GDP-232022%20Q4-TN1.0/
Why is the market set to end on Jan 31 when the BEA's advance estimate is scheduled for Jan 26?
@RobertGrosse Good question, we'll change it.
@SalemCenter Also same thing for this market: https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/SalemCenter/us-gdp-growth-1-or-more-in-2022-q4
Dropped down to 2.8% today.
Latest estimate: 3.2 percent ā December 9, 2022
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Now at 4.3%
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Thereās only one quarter left. And for that one Kalshi has a market now with >3.0% growth only 6% likely, though the trading volume is pretty small so far. Presumably 4% would be even less likely. https://kalshi.com/events/GDP-232022%20Q4/markets/GDP-232022%20Q4-TN1.0
@1941159478 Something weird is going on with this market. >3.5% is more likely than >3%? My guess is it isn't live or is extremely small/illiquid. Modal expectation is now for this to resolve yes.
@Ben Yeah, it seems like the last trade made there for >3.5% was on November 6 and the last trade for >3.0% was November 3. So itās _really_ illiquid. But what is your case for deferring to GDPNow that much? Your last comment was āabout 5%ā!
Iām definitely out of my depth here in terms of econometrics used. But in the Frequently Asked Questions tab at the link you posted they write: āOverall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. The model does appear to fare well compared to other conventional statistical models.ā
@1941159478 When the facts change, I change my mind. There's more to GDP forecasting than reverting Manifold vs a tiny/illiquid Kalshi market.
@Ben I agree! But thereās other forecasts, like that Blue Chip survey or that site https://www.now-casting.com/home which they link to, which both predict way less than 4% growth. I also donāt really see what recent piece of news would change the economic situation that drastically. So why trust GDPNow in particular? Or are you doing your own econometrics?
@1941159478 do you have access to the blue chip survey? looks to be paywalled
https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/solutions/vitallaw-law-firms/blue-chip
Fair value for this is about 5%.
Occurred once in 28qtrs, outside the Covid catch-up hyper stimulus regime.
I'm not an economic genius, but it seems like volatility => likelihood of large quarter-to-quarter change. E.g. if supply shocks caused real GDP to be suppressed by 3% relative to counterfactual in Q1, then removal of these supply shocks might cause an abnormally large growth in Q3/Q4. Given all of the energy/Ukraine/COVID supply shocks going around, 4:1 seems like decent odds for this question.
Also worth pointing out that we get a few changes in 2022 ā if you think there's 25% odds for Q3 and Q4 independently, then the overall probability is 1 - (.75)**2 = 44%
4% doesn't seem historically insane, assuming that this data is trustworthy: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/
Kalshi is at 6%(!) for a very similar question -- they ask whether real GDP growth will surpass 5% for any quarter, instead of this question's 4%. That seems to indicate that this question is way overpriced. https://kalshi.com/events/GDPUSMAX-22/markets/GDPUSMAX-22-P5
Also: reminder that *real GDP takes inflation into account*, so new recent information about inflation shouldn't directly impact your forecasts in this question! I wonder if the reason there's been an over-update on this question in the last day is that some people don't know this? Otherwise, please share your reasons!
@HenriLemoine I don't have a strong opinion on this question, but unless I'm missing something, the Kalshi market doesn't imply that this market is overpriced. 5% growth would be much bigger (and therefore much less likely) than 4% growth.
Kalshi: 6% chance of [GDP growth > 5%]
This Q: 24% chance of [GDP growth > 4%]
Implied: 18% chance that [4% < GDP growth < 5%]
If you accept the Kalshi probability as realistic, then the current market on this question seems reasonable to me
@ChrisBoyd Yes I agree, I think that the current price is fairly reasonable. I thought at the time that people were overupdating on the recent report, or something like that.
10:1 seems like decent odds on this tbh; the market is behaving weirdly.
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