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Will PredictIt Survive?
Resolved
YES
Feb 16
S$24,637 bet

šŸ’¬ Proven correct

guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace bought S$1,108 of YES
YOOOOO LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
guyin1stplace made S$998!
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 98%
@SalemCenter how about a "Will PredictIt add a new market by 7/31" market?
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 98%
@SalemCenter As much as I like the result here, I believe there has been a really bad error. I think you somehow paid out $3000 extra to me. My payout on the "your bets" tab matches the amount of shares I had (2880), but I got 3K more than that when the market resolved. Unless there's some other explanation, this needs to be fixed. In addition, all market resolutions from the beginning of the tournament until now should probably checked as well. I don't personally remember something like this happening previously, but can't be sure.
SalemCenter
@zubbybadger We'll look into it. Thanks for letting us know.
Mark
Mark is betting YES at 98%
@zubbybadger I think it paid out twice. This same thing happened on one of the GDP markets. They fixed it by subtracting the extra money later: https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/SalemCenter/us-gdp-growth-over-4-in-any-quarter
JamesGrugett
@Mark Yep. Does anyone know any other markets where this might have happened?
del
deleted is betting NO at 98%
@JamesGrugett It also sent out emails twice. Based on that, these should be the only two markets it happened.
JamesGrugett
@1941159478 Thank you Johnny!
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 98%
@zubbybadger @JamesGrugett oh crap I skrewed this up, uh I'll just leave all my bets as is and have 5k of debt right? is there a better way of fixing that?
JamesGrugett
@zubbybadger Hi, I have run the script which subtracted the duplicate payouts! Should be good now. Cheers.
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace bought S$367 of YES
You can buy contracts right now. The market should be closed. Maybe as a fun idea next would be to ask whether PredictIt created a new market by X date?
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 95%
Here's the link to the hearing if anyone wants to listen to the slaughter: https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/OralArgRecordings/22/22-51124_2-8-2023.mp3
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 95%
Looks like @1941159478 listened to the hearing and realized that the CFTC clowns just got OWNED!!
Spencer
Spencer is betting YES at 95%
@zubbybadger Any way I can listen or get more info?
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 95%
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain is betting YES at 93%
So this might have been a mistake if WHO market resolves first GDI resolution hopping
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace bought S$1,108 of YES
YOOOOO LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
ussgordoncaptain
ussgordoncaptain bought S$2,000 of YES
@zubbybadger god I lost because my phone notifications were turned off
guyin1stplace
guyin1stplace is betting YES at 95%
@ussgordoncaptain Forget about that! PI lives!
del
deleted sold S$73 of NO
ā™Ŗā””[āˆµā”Œ]ā””[ āˆµ ]ā”˜[ā”āˆµ]ā”˜ā™Ŗ
JohnGrossWhitaker
Jack G-W is betting NO at 35%
why is this drifting so far from the real money market?
Spencer
Spencer is betting YES at 94%
@JohnGrossWhitaker Because I'm stuck in the USA where real money markets are illegal
del
deleted bought S$200 of NO
There's a real money market on pretty much this at Insight Prediction currently at 11%: https://insightprediction.com/m/18505/will-predictit-survive

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