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💬 Proven correct
@CB To me it’s a matter of if, not when, Ukraine gets control of Kherson. I pulled out of my No position a little while ago but if this had a deadline of December or January I’d probably stay in
PPPP made S$116!
Wow. 98.2%. That's the first time I've seen a decimal point.
@ConnorPitts It’s going to be wild when the Russians withdraw across the river tomorrow morning.
@JosiahNeeley Plenty of people have said that Putin plays 4D chess, but I think this is the first time we've learned what he's really after: that sweet, sweet Texas fellowship.
Is 194 some sort of market maker bot? If not, I don't understand how 1941159478 bought S$48 / S$200 of YES at 50% 10 days ago when at was at 60+%
@MatthewB Limit orders sometimes appear out of order on the list of bets
@JosiahNeeley That makes sense. Well, as much sense as any random bug makes.
@MatthewB Not a bot here, just wasn't very creative in choosing a username and picked a random one :)
It's not exactly a bug: The limit order appears at the time it's first placed, not when it's filled. And I cancelled it before it was completely filled, so now it's only S$48 / S$200.
Also, shameless plug since me sounding like a bot came up here: I’m currently having a free response market on the main Manifold to choose a better username. There’s a M$500 bounty!
https://manifold.markets/1941159478/what-should-i-rename-myself
Still looks to me like Russia is going to have to pull out eventually, but based on their preparations to defend the city, not till later.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-24
@PPPP Hahahahahahahah. I'm sure you bought the Pentagon when they said that victory over the Taliban was right around the corner for the last 20 years.
@MrMister ahahahahah. I'm sure one of these days buying into "unnamed intelligence sources" will get you to the truth.
how does this resolve if a nuke wipes kherson off the map?
Russia announces evacuation of civilians from Kherson City. Still looks like a question of when, not if, Ukraine retakes ... https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-army-preparing-to-evacuate-kherson-s-population-commander-01666116007
@DfromBham https://news.yahoo.com/russian-occupiers-steal-watercraft-kherson-153145947.html "The occupiers seized 13 out of 15 barge-type watercraft in the local river port of the temporarily occupied city of Kherson for transporting personnel and equipment across the Dnipro River."
The Insight Prediction market says there’s a 72% that Russia controls all of Oak Park, a small part of Kherson City, while this market says there’s a 78% chance that Russian controls all of Kherson city. This market also runs 6 days longer.
Seems like the probability here should be less than or equal to the probability there? What am I missing?
https://insightprediction.com/m/18849/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-on-october-25th-2022
@LorinElijahBroadbent Do some arbitrage. You'll be fake money rich.
@AlanSayler already did lol, not sure why it didn’t tag my stake.
@LorinElijahBroadbent that market you posted now has Russia's chance of controlling Oak Park at 37%. This one is still above 60% for controlling the whole city.
@PPPP you’re reading backwards I think. That market has 37% chance of Ukraine controlling all of oak park.
*part of oak park
@LorinElijahBroadbent oops! You're right.
So... last week people started moving towards the idea that Ukraine really can control parts of Kherson in the next 5+ weeks or so. And now a referendum would somehow change that? Russia's best hope for that to make a difference is ........? Conscription of the locals? So, you're cut off from getting enough logistical support for troops in Kherson, but somehow it would be a good idea to spread thin your equipment and arm the people that you've been oppressing for months? Sounds like a fantastic idea
@DfromBham Haha. Nice try loser.
@MichaelTomac glad you're here to offer your insight. Other than taking cheap shots at people, what's your prediction been? Other than to say that people put too much faith in Western sources.
Kherson they love Mother Russia. They not even fight for the Ukraine. They only city to just say "da, da" to Russians. Not a shot fired.
@DavidSmith The point is the same. The conflict (there) is just 16 miles from the heart of kherson, much less the outer portions of the city. Feels like they can probably gain the terroritory over the next six weeks or so and have a presence wothin Kherson. To reiterate, this question resolves NO if Ukraine controls any part of the city. They don't have to "take" it
The war is in the east. Russian positions in Kherson are vulnerable, but (1) Russia does not want to lose beachhead, (2) Russia does not want to write-off the equipment/material that could not be easily taken back over the Dnieper (all while under fire).
Ukraine would get a nice V on taking back Kherson, but urban assault is costly, and manpower needed to take back Kherson would be better used in the eastern bulge. Only 6 more weeks.
@NathanKrummen All good points, but I think there is a good chance that "what Russia wants" might not mean much to the actual soldiers occupying the city
@CB To me it’s a matter of if, not when, Ukraine gets control of Kherson. I pulled out of my No position a little while ago but if this had a deadline of December or January I’d probably stay in
@PPPP there is a May 2023 market for this you know
@CB Lol, you morons are still getting your perspective on Ukraine from the same sources that told you Saddam had nukes, the rebels who were decapitating children and eating the hearts of their enemies in Syria were moderate, and that victory in Afghanistan was just around the corner. We should certainly discount anything coming out of Russian-friendly media, but we should give the same discounting to the Western media. I'm sure you suckers bought into the Ghost of Kiev as well.
@MichaelTomac as sopposed to your sources that say what? That Russia is doing great, with no issues?
@DfromBham Did you not read "We should certainly discount anything coming out of Russian-friendly media?" Unlike many people commenting here, there are no sources that I would unquestionably believe. If you believe that there is no bias coming out of the Ukraine reporting in the Western media, you are an idiot.
@MichaelTomac perhaps you're an idiot for making assumptions on where i get my information. There are very few (if any) unbiased sources. But there's enough broad-based information for me to stand on NO here
@MichaelTomac lol where is all this vitriol coming from? its ok man take a break maybe go outside for a bit
@CB says the guy that rolled in here calling people morons and idiots.
@DfromBham no, that was michaeltomac, the person i was replying to
@CB apologies
@CB My vitriol comes from the fact that every single time the media promotes war you people fall for it. Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Ukraine, it never seems to occur to people that they are being misled. What did you think about the Ghost of Kiev, the martyrs of Snake Island, etc?
@CB That may be true of my personally, but it still doesn't undermine my point about giving the Western media any credence when they warmonger is a mistake that has led to a mass graveyard of innocent deaths.
@MichaelTomac personally I'm against warmongers no matter what language they speak, whether it be English or Russian... I opposed Obama & Co. attacking Iraq and Syria, I opposed the US/EU meddlings in Ukrainian domestic politics, and I now oppose Russia invading Ukraine.
But re: sources, Dmitri Alperovitch is my most trusted.
@MichaelTomac I'm afraid that your point isn't clear. From what i know about war, historically, and from what i think is happening in this conflict, i took a position that i feel is accurate. One of many, varied positions in this exercise. Not sure how any of that relates to war mongering
@PPPP You trust the co-founder of Crowdstrike, and someone who has a long history of being virulently anti-Russian?
@DfromBham You would have voted Yes on "Will the US find active chemical weapons production facilities in Iraq by 2003?"
@MichaelTomac He worked for Crowdstrike but wasn't the founder. And yes, he's been the most accurate at prognosticating on this war. I say this as someone who follows way too much news and reads both mainstream sources and alternative media like Unz Review. I don't particularly care what his feelings are about Russia, I care about how accurate he's going to be.
@MichaelTomac i would have voted no on the question that you have there regarding Iraq. Not that it has any bearing on this question. Still... what's your point? Your point seems to be that the war is going better for Russia than most people think. And, that most people have formed their opinions after being fed bad information by western sources. Does that accurately summarize it?
@DfromBham Somewhat. My point is that people in this feed seem to buy the Western narrative that the recent territorial gains that the Ukraine made near Kharkov translate to gains in other parts of the country, specifically Kherson, despite that area having a much different terrain and being more adequately manned and supplied.
@DfromBham And re: Iraq, we have no way of verifying you were slamming Colin Powell's speech at the UN. The strength of the narrative at that time was exactly the same as it is today, with the same people on the same sides. Is that just a coincidence? How many people were calling BS on the Bush administration in 2003 and are now beating their chest proclaiming that the Zelensky is going to kick the Ruskies out of Ukraine shortly today?
@MichaelTomac i wasn't throwing any shade at Powell at that time, but i would have said no on that question you had. If the question back then had been "Is Iraq in full compliance with UN mandates related the WMD?", i would have said NO. In Ukraine, i see the Eastern theater and Kherson being two completely different things. I think troops in Kherson have been cut off from being meaningfully resupplied. They're dug into the terrain in a very different way than they were in the NE. But i feel like attrition is starting to catch up with them. My assertion is that soon the Russian troops in Kherson will run low of food and ammo, and we'll see scenes of them retreating on foot over what remains of the large bridges.
There is apparently chatter on twitter claiming that there are currently tanks in/around Moscow, implying possibility of regime change or strongarming of Putin by the army. See for example this tweet replied to by retired US general Mark Hertling: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1568625826106572802
@CB Dude. The tanks on the streets were for the Moscow Day celebration. Moscow is 575 years old today.
@DavidSmith thanks, seems you are right - the tanks thing is most likely a nonfactor.
More indications Russia is overstretched. Pulling their Kherson troops back to the other side of the Dnieper would be an obvious way to shore up their more defensible positions in the Donbas.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826ed4105b5f32827f577
@PPPP agreed. Russia needs to preserve personnel and shift them. They should be able to cross the river, and hold the line to prevent Ukraine from pushing towards Crimea. But they may have to sacrifice significant numbers of pieces that can't be taken across the bridges anymore
@LorinElijahBroadbent this is a very different question than the one here. But interesting
@LorinElijahBroadbent A couple points:
-46 days remaining for the insightprediction market; 52 days remaining for this one
-Insightprediction resolves as Ukraine control only if Russia is not in control of Oak Park, a small district deep in the southeast of the city. This market resolves as Ukraine if Ukraine controls any part of the city.
@CB You make some good points. I had initially discounted the extra days, but I shouldn’t have since it does buy ~10% more time to take ground (or to lose any ground that they take, but I put more weight on the former).
Concerning the size of Oak Park, I am having a little difficulty judging by the map. Do you know what percentage of Kherson City it represents? My understanding is that Kherson Oblast is about the size of Maryland with the city itself a much smaller land area about half the size of Baltimore (52 square miles).
@LorinElijahBroadbent Here is a screenshot from google maps. The red outline is Kherson city; the blue circle is approximately Oak Park. https://imgur.com/GvXKNdL
I think it's possible that it could be several days between "taking control of any part of the city" vs "taking control of this particular part of the city (in the southeast, furthest from the front)". (I'm certainly no expert, but my understanding is that urban warfare is often a street-by-street kind of thing)
@CB I think that makes sense, and thank you for sharing that very helpful image! Insight Prediction says that the chance of Russia controlling all of Oak Park on October 25 is 82%. This is quite a bit lower than the 93% estimate on August 28th, so I think it's safe to say that Ukraine controlling any part of the city by that time has become more likely. If we assume IP is accurate and incorporate the points you made, we should also conclude that the right prediction on this market should be at least weakly lower than 82. Maybe it should be much lower than that, or maybe current market price reasonably approximates the difference in likelihood.
@PPPP i think Ukraine will get into Kherson in a measurable way before the end of Oct
Blowing up on Hanania's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1564299638240612352
He says this is the only market he knows of, but Insight Prediction and Metaculus both have similar questions.
@LorinElijahBroadbent I guess this would explain the new accounts betting $1000 at a time (in both the up and down directions)
@CB do you know what happens when $S go negative? A bunch of my limit orders filled all at once and I don’t notice any immediate consequences (profits are actually near peak) but didn’t know that was even possible.
@LorinElijahBroadbent happened to me earlier - one limit order (that pushed me negative) went through in entirety, but the rest of my outstanding limit orders across all events got cancelled
@CB that makes sense, thanks!
Main way this resolves to No is if Russia retreats because of resupply issues and to free up troops. Kherson chiefly valuable as a bridgehead for further offensives, but hard to supply and needs lots of troops there to prevent them getting stranded on west bank of dnieper. So if Russia reduces its war aims, they might conduct orderly retreat, but I don't see Ukraine taking Kherson in time if Russia resolves to defend it. They lack the firepower.
@baazaa9 i don't believe Ukraine can reclaim the city by then. But they have the laid the groundwork for an offensive, and for this to resolve NO, Ukraine just has to have some measure of part of the city. Any part, and this becomes a NO. Can Ukraine start to push within the next two weeks, and get some of the city? My bet is that they will.
@DanFloyd The main way this resolves NO is because of propaganda outlets saying that UKR has some of Kherson when they don't (because some part of Kherson is in no man's land)
The issue with artillery wars is that they are long slow and grindy and this war is moving at the pace of world war 1 (after a really fast initial push to topple Kiev)
Can we get a question for whether there will be some sort of disaster at the Zaporizhzhia plant or is that too grim?
@PPPP i also think this would bea good question, as long as they can define what would qualify
If Urkainian partisan activity is in Kherson do you count it as YES or NO
ex does russia currently control Kherson
Partisan activity doesn't mean Russia has lost control. It is currently in control of the entire city by the rules of the market. @ussgordoncaptain
@SalemCenter Thanks for the clarification!
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