the war will tilt towards russia's favor during the winter. massive gas shortages in ukraine, then warfare in a winter landscape, which is much more conducive to simply strongarming through (no cover/foliage). the only question is how much so. 

(no cover/foliage/mechanized warfare wins)


@ussgordoncaptain when the russians manage to upgrade their tanks with an APS (just a matter of time), things will change drastically

@RobinNikolic APS doesn't seem to be something that's imminent.  This has become a war of attrition, with Russia seemingly holding back on fully utilizing air capabilities.  Loss of aircraft would be much harder to replace than personnel and/or ground weaponry.  Mainly, that's about the expense

@DavidSmith how so?  12/31 is still 12/31

Kind of wild this is still at 30%. Time value of money aside, this is in reality, what, 1%? Maybe 2? This is the part of Ukraine where Russia has been wrecked the hardest.

@JoshuaWhite there have been some recent (3-4 days ago) reports of Russia making some advances near-ish, in Bakhmut.  Push seems to be in the direction of Kramatorsk/Sloviansk.  I'm not currently holding a position here, fwiw

This market will resolve as YES if as of December 31, 2022, Russia is in complete control of the city of Kramatorsk. If credible media reports suggest that Ukrainian or any other non-Russian aligned forces control any part of the city on that date, the market will resolve as NO. This market will rely on The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times for its determination. If those sources disagree on who has control over any part of the city, the Salem Center will decide which reports are most credible. 

💬 Proven correct

Play-money betting