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💬 Proven correct
@BTE Sorry, we meant to do that before anyone else bet. We're not a "participant" in this market or any other. It actually helps you a bit, if you think yes is correct you can get it at the cheaper price. We regret the error.
Salem Center made S$488!
This is one of those markets where there's this distinct chance it happens (1-2%), but the skill in selling all your NO shares and then buying a bunch of YES shares before @SalemCenter resolves the market means that the risk is NULL if you have enough APM
@ussgordoncaptain yeah, for these markets that could resolve YES at any time, in my opinion it would be good for Salem to roll back trades made within 24-48 hours of the resolution. That would keep it faithful to the goal of rewarding predictions vs keyboard hovering to react to breaking news stories.
@PPPP I think you'd need a different platform because HFT is the dominant way to win this compeition. J10N has a better handle of the trading API than I do and that's why he's in first and I'm in 7th
@ussgordoncaptain guessing part of this comp is to make top 5, then convince that HFT + Twitter addiction =/= forecasting, so ultimate winner won’t be guaranteed to be top 1
@NathanKrummen Wikipedia addiction is forecasting
I'm not sure which way this cuts. On the one hand, it shows Garland is open to indictment. On the other hand, bringing in a new guy to oversee it means he'll need some time to get started.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/18/attorney-general-merrick-garland-to-name-special-counsel-in-trump-criminal-probe-report-says.html
@PPPP He was always open to indictment. There was literally a sealed grand jury going through the process of indicting Trump for the last couple of months.
The odds of Trump being indicted by the end of the year just went from pretty high to almost nil. 😭
@MatthewB there's still the Georgia grand jury, but I don't think that's going to be ready for indictment by the end of the year.
@PPPP Yeah, that doesn't seem that likely. I don't think they are taking my prediction market deadlines into consideration.
@MatthewB I know right? And Putin wouldn't take my deadlines into account either when deciding to pull out of Kherson 😂. The indict by July 2023 question still seems way too low in my opinion...
As I've said before, this is wishful thinking. I would bet every dollar I have on saying, with full certainty, that Donald Trump will not be indicted of a crime in 2022.
If I'm wrong we'll just be plunged into a civil war with global implications. I'm betting on us avoiding WW3 and Trump never ever going to prison.
@RobertBertrand I'm willing to take this bet at 100:1 odds, and I expect you are too since you are fully certain of the resolution. To be more precise, you'd give me every dollar you have (or $1000 if you prefer) if this market resolves positively, and I'd give you a hundredth of that if the market resolves negatively.
If you're open to it, we can finalize the details of the bet with a trusted third party. :P
@HenriLemoine I'm not allowed to gamble due to religious reasons, however, I will donate $100 to your preferred charity if you're right.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3710063-gop-bracing-for-trump-indictment-soon-after-election-day/
If GOP insiders expect this to happen soon after the election, odds should be way higher.
Forget what I said. You should buy more no. ;)
@MatthewB "Republican aides and strategists privately expect Attorney General Merrick Garland to pursue an indictment of former President Trump within 60 to 90 days after Election Day"
Election day is Nov 8. So 60 to 90 days after that = Jan 08 2023 to Feb 08 2023 (not in 2022).
Plus, lol at believing political "news" anyway. Thanks for the free fake money.
@MatthewB FWIW, I'm also not convinced by the article. The GOP insiders are still outsiders to the tight-lipped DOJ and are reasoning based on the same public info as us. The article even states:
“Republican aides on Capitol Hill and veteran party strategists emphasize they don’t have any inside information on what Garland might do, but they say the attorney general is under heavy pressure from Democrats to act and the deadline for pursuing an indictment is fast approaching.”
Plus, Polymarket is now at 18%.
@StuartDoyle If you want my money, you'll need to stop investing chump change. But I guess being aggressively obnoxious is one way to make up for your clear lack of confidence.
@1941159478 I'm not saying that the market should be at 90%, like you said, these people don't have inside information. But they are experts in terms of the processes and timing of these things. If a Republican aide says that he expects the indictment to come a couple of weeks and provides good reasoning for that, that will heavily shift my priors.
What's the reasoning that there's a 71% chance that Trump isn't indicted this year? Just the fact that Polymarket has 18%? I don't think that means much, considering all the biggest subject matter experts on DC are excluded from the market.
@MatthewB Okay, I agree that the people quoted here have expertise and we should update somewhat on their analysis, especially if the arguments are good. But none of the arguments cited sound that persuasive to me, and the whole questions seems like a politically charged and pretty unprecedented situation where I’m particularly skeptical of just taking people’s opinion.
Personally I’m honestly just totally deferring to Polymarket here. It has pretty good liquidity (and >$70,000 in volume). From googling it, their ban on the US is apparently pretty easy to circumvent with a VPN too. It’s all crypto anyway.
But question for you: Shouldn’t you be on Polymarket ASAP, maybe even take out a loan for it? If their price really is less than half of what it should be all things considered, you can more than double your money in expectation!
@MatthewB you're foaming at the mouth to start that civil war, huh?
@1941159478 I actually looked at PolyMarket and PredictIt after placing my bet here, but one didn't have it, and the other wouldn't let me bet. If a VPN and a stable crypto is all it will take, I might do it.
But why would I take out a loan for it? Polymarket isn't that liquid, and it wouldn't take that much to drive the price up to very unfavorable odds for me.
@RobertBertrand If you can't tell the difference between a normative statement and a descriptive statement, you're gonna have a bad time.
@1941159478 also, if other markets are like this one, driven by partisans betting on what they want to happen and then people betting like collective partisanship is at all a useful predictor, I think the current values of all these markets is basically just noise.
@StuartDoyle spot on.
@RobertBertrand Is he, though? He couldn't even parse the English correctly. Within 6 to 8 weeks clearly means <= 6 or 8 weeks. Not between 6 and 8 weeks.
What drives the divergence from Polymarket and Insight Prediction?
@LorinElijahBroadbent Basically, the whims of three participants here: Alexander, Joe, and Ryan. These Salem markets are illiquid. (I'd bet "No" here myself but I already have all my allotted money invested in other markets that I'm even more confident are diverged from the true probabilities.)
See? Trump is in Wash DC today to turn himself in on DoJ indictment
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHEGtjgrB7venNJnx7UX3jIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow77zbCjDiq8wBMNiCsgU?uo=CAUiANIBAA&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
How does he NOT get indicted in the next 3 1/2 months? His CFO at Trump Org pled guilty. His business and taxes are under active investigation. Georgia has a grand jury wrapping up soon. Then there is the DoJ raiding his home finding exactly the criminally withheld docs the criminal warrant listed as justification.
@JacobS counterargument
Trump is in Wash DC today to turn himself in on DoJ indictment
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHEGtjgrB7venNJnx7UX3jIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow77zbCjDiq8wBMNiCsgU?uo=CAUiANIBAA&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
@DavidSmith The article refers to speculation of arrest, not confirmation.
@LorinElijahBroadbent correct. Multiple political professionals who see his visit to DC as most likely in response to an indictment. Right.
@DavidSmith lol
The Trump Derangement Syndrome is Strong in This One
I think he'll be indicted sometime between tomorrow and a couple months from now. Given the developments of the past few days, I can't fathom why this market is so low. He is being investigated for violating the Espionage Act, and SCI was recovered from Mar-a-Lago. This is a slam-dunk legal case, and I can't imagine why they would wait until 2023 to bring charges.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/12/politics/trump-mar-a-lago-investigation/index.html
@belikewater total slam dunk. Doesn’t even matter if the documents were classified or not for him to have broken the three laws cited. He will definitely not be announcing a campaign ever.
@belikewater The reason is people is that the resolution date is too far out for this contest, you need to bet on the october ones first
@ussgordoncaptain Unless you think this will resolve in the relatively near future.
Something is clearly going wrong here. Polymarket predicts 28%. This market is clearly wayyy too high. There's no reason for this to be anywhere above 35%.
https://polymarket.com/market-group/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by
indicted vs convicted ? what is the legal difference?
@YimbyGeorge Indicted just means charged, which is very different from convicted, which means found guilty.
What is the utility of the NO bets by @salemcenter?
I didn’t realize the host of this challenge was also a participant. Why are you moving the market 20%+ after participants have bet? @salemcenter
@BTE Sorry, we meant to do that before anyone else bet. We're not a "participant" in this market or any other. It actually helps you a bit, if you think yes is correct you can get it at the cheaper price. We regret the error.
@SalemCenter I guess now I can. Shame it is offset by my first bet that if I had waited 10 more seconds would be at 35 instead of 50. And after you add that much liquidity you are basically forcing me to close out and start over with a loss unless I just want to hold it and hope I am right which kinda undermines the idea of this being a “trading” competition. Sorry to harp on this but every dollar counts when 15 people get an $800 head start, again “by accident”.
@BTE Hmm, I was hoping this was a competition about forecasting events. But the trading aspect makes it more of a competition about forecasting how the prices will move over time, which is lame. I like the Metaculus model better.
@TimH you make a very good point, this is about forecasting events, I was wrong to call it a “trading competition”. I love Manifold and also enjoy Metaculus but they are very different experiences. It would be very interesting to duplicate this experiment on Metaculus and see if their is a notable difference between forecasters optimizing for Brier Score vs using trading against the crowd using limit orders.
Damn why did the market maker just crush my opening position? Lame.
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